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Trump Needs to Stop Coddling China’s Communist Regime and Put America First

We’ve learned again in recent days that the problem with the Trump administration is not the administration—it’s Trump.

While the administration has rightly called out China for its purposeful lying about the coronavirus and its deliberate anti-American propaganda, Trump has been minimizing China’s culpability and trying to appease its communist regime.

The National Security Council, for instance, tweeted Mar. 18, 2020

https://twitter.com/WHNSC/status/1240351140774137857

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, likewise, has spoken truthfully, candidly, and importantly, publicly, about China’s reckless and dangerous behavior (Mar. 18 on Fox News’ Hannity:

“Instead of trying to do the work to suppress the virus, which is what the world demanded, the Chinese Communist Party didn’t get it right and put countless lives at risk as a result of that,” Pompeo told Sean Hannity.

Pompeo added that the Chinese government had created a “disinformation campaign,” and “wasted valuable days at the front end” after the virus was first reportedly discovered in November.

“They haven’t been sufficiently transparent. And the risk you find [is] if we don’t get this right, if we don’t get to the bottom of this, is this could be something that is repeatable,” Pompeo warned. “Maybe not in this form, maybe not in this way, but transparency matters.”

That’s exactly right. Too bad Trump doesn’t understand this. Here’s what the President said after talking with his “friend,” Xi Jinping, the dictator of China (Mar. 27):

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1243407157321560071

Much respect?! Trump sucking up to China’s dictator would be laughable were the matter not so critical to U.S. national security.

China has accused the United States of hatching the coronavirus and spreading it worldwide. And they are waging a propaganda war against the United States to undermine our influence and dominate the world. Yet, Trump has “much respect” for China and its dictator, Xi Jinping.

Moreover, as CNN’s Jennifer Hansler reports, when

asked about reported efforts by China, Russia and Iran to mislead the public about the source of the deadly pandemic and the US response to it, Trump countered by voicing doubt about the media reports and suggesting that they were aimed at damaging his presidency.

“Number one you don’t know what they’re doing, and when you read it in the Washington Post, you don’t believe it,” Trump said on Fox & Friends.

“I believe very little of what I see. I see stories in the Washington Post that are so fake, that are so phony.

Pressed on the fact that the Chinese government has engaged in such a disinformation campaign, the President seemed to downplay the matter.

“They do it and we do it and we call them different things and you know, I make statements that are very strong against China, including the Chinese virus, which has been going on for a long time,” Trump said. “Every country does it.”

No, Mr. President, every country does not lie and sow disinformation. China is in a league of its own.

In any case, what Trump says is not what his own Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, says. Nor is it what Trump’s own coronavirus response coordinator, Deborah Birx, M.D., says.

During yesterday’s White House briefing, Birx explained that, because China lied big-time about the number of people there infected with the virus, U.S. officials were caught flatfooted and unprepared for how big a problem COVID-19 really is.

National Review’s Zachary Evans reports:

“When you looked at the China data originally,” with 50,000 infected in an area of China with 80 million people, “you start thinking of this more like SARS than you do a global pandemic,” Birx said at a press conference.

“The medical community interpreted the Chinese data as, this was serious, but smaller than anyone expected,” Birx continued.

“Because, probably… we were missing a significant amount of the data, now that we see what happened to Italy and we see what happened to Spain.”

“The reality is that we could have been better off if China had been more forthcoming,” Vice President Mike Pence said Wednesday on CNN.

What appears evident now is that long before the world learned in December that China was dealing with this, and maybe as much as a month earlier than that, that the outbreak was real in China.

Yet, at this same White House briefing, Trump disgracefully downplayed Chinese culpability, while touting his “good relationship” with the dictator, Xi.

I think we all understand where it [the coronavirus] came from. And President Xi understands that. And we don’t have to make a big deal out of it.

We didn’t like the fact that they said it came from our [U.S.] soldiers. And they haven’t pursued that. It was—and that was a mid-level person said that. That was not a high-level person, so I assume.

I will always assume the best. I’ll assume the high-level people didn’t know about it. It was a foolish statement.

Why would any American President “assume the best” when it comes to the China’s communist regime?

Shouldn’t we “presume the worst,” given the regime’s history and record of lying, deceit, and anti-American vitriol, propaganda and hostility?

Moreover, as HotAir’s AllahPundit points out

It was a spokesman for China’s foreign ministry that elevated the “blame America” theory of the virus. The claim had been circulating on Chinese social media for weeks, doubtless with the consent of state censors.

It’s not like some random Chinese official went rogue and started pushing a message that Beijing opposed. Chinese officials who go rogue tend to disappear.

But no worries, because says Trump:

The relationship with China is a good one, and my relationship with him [Chinese dictator Xi Jinping] is, you know, really good.

If the relationship is “really good,” then why are the Chinese accusing the United States of causing the COVID-19 pandemic, and why did they lie to our scientists and medical personnel about the severity of the outbreak in China?

Well, again, let’s not worry too much about that says Trump:

Their numbers seem to be a little bit on the light side, and I’m being nice when I say that relative to what we witnessed and what was reported.

But we discussed that with him, not so much the numbers, as what they did and how they’re doing. And we’re in constant communication.

I would say the biggest communication is [between] myself and President Xi. The relationship’s very good

As to whether or not their numbers are accurate, I’m not an accountant from China.

No, but you are President of the United States. Instead of making excuses for America’s enemies—and make no mistake: China’s communist regime is an enemy of the United States, not simply a “competitor” or an “adversary”—you should be putting America First. 

But Trump, of course, has his excuses. He always does:

Look, they’re spending—they will be spending, when things even out—this is obviously a little bit of a hurdle, what’s happened over the last month.

But they’ll be spending $250 billion buying our product[s]: $50 billion to the farmers alone; $200 billion to other things.

They never did that before. So, we have a great trade deal, and we’d like to keep it. And the relationship is good.

Rhetorical Appeasement. There you have it. Trump believes he must appease China because if he does not—if, instead, he speaks candidly and forthrightly about the regime’s bad and virulently anti-American behavior—that might jeopardize our so-called phase one trade deal.

But this is nonsense. The truth is: China is hurting—because of the coronavirus and because of their own economic mismanagement. Thus they need American products in a very bad way. They really have nowhere else to go.

But even were it otherwise, Trump needs to take a more strategic and longer-term view.

What is most likely to effect a change in China’s bad and virulently anti-American behavior: appeasement now or speaking truth to the world and to Chinese regime power?

What is most likely to strengthen the hands of China’s liberal-minded reformers: striking deals with hardline communists like the dictator, Xi, or calling him out and showing everyone that the emperor has no clothes?

What is more likely to bring China into the community of peace-loving nations that respect the rule of law and intellectual property: making excuses for the regime and downplaying its transgressions, or holding it to account and highlighting its misdeeds?

Peace Through Strength. In 1983, Ronald Reagan called the Soviet Union the evil empire. By calling out the regime, he helped to expose and weaken it until, finally, several years later, it collapsed.

Granted, China is not the Soviet Union. However, it is a bad and corrupt regime that needs to alter its course on the world stage and change its behavior.

But this won’t happen if, in the name of short-term gain and “phase one” trade deals, the United States coddles China and looks the other way even as the regime wages a sophisticated propaganda war against us.

Just ask the Trump administration. It knows and understands China’s communist regime. Too bad the man who leads that administration does not.

As we’ve seen time and time again: The problem is not the Trump administration. The problem is Trump.

Feature photo credit: Thomas Peter/Getty Images in Politico.

‘Don’t Panic!’: What I Got Right—and Wrong—About the Coronavirus

The similarities to the influenza virus or flu are important; but more important right now are the differences, and those differences can be stark.

As ‘social distancing’ fast becomes national policy to avert the worst potential ravages of the coronavirus, the Wall Street Journal’s Peggy Noonan makes a good point about the commonplace advice, “Don’t Panic!”, and the much-used qualifier, “out of an abundance of caution.”

Now it’s time to lose the two most famous phrases of the moment. One is “Don’t panic!” The other is “an abundance of caution.”

“Don’t panic” is what nervous, defensive people say when someone warns of coming trouble. They don’t want to hear it, so their message is “Don’t worry like a coward, be blithely unconcerned like a brave person.”

One way or another we’ve heard it a lot from administration people.

This is how I’ve experienced it:

“Captain, that appears to be an iceberg.” “Don’t panic, officer, full steam ahead.”

“Admiral, concentrating our entire fleet in one port seems tempting fate.” “We don’t need your alarmist fantasies, ensign.”

“We’re picking up increased chatter about an al Qaeda action.” “Your hand-wringing is duly noted.”

“Don’t panic,” in the current atmosphere, is a way of shutting up people who are using their imaginations as a protective tool. It’s an implication of cowardice by cowards.

As for “abundance of caution,” at this point, in a world-wide crisis, the cautions we must take aren’t abundant, they’re reasonable and realistic.

Reason and realism are good.

Point well made and point well taken, Ms. Noonan. I should, therefore, offer up my own mea culpa.

In Obesity Is a Much More Dangerous Public Health Problem Than the Coronavirus (March 10), I wrongly downplayed the risk of the coronavirus and criticized the resultant “public panic (or at least [the] media panic).”

I was not entirely wrong. For the vast majority of us, obesity is a much more dangerous public health problem than the coronavirus.

And the media does have a tendency to sensationalize and distort public health problems—especially, when these problems (or at least the tardy and weak response to these problems) can be attributed to President Trump and his administration. 

However, as I made clear in my last piece, Social Distancing’ Will Stop the Coronavirus and Save Lives (March 13),  the risk posed by COVID-19 is very real, albeit much less real to any one of us than to the healthcare system in general.

Case in point: Italy’s healthcare system, which is being overwhelmed by the sheer volume of COVID-19-infected patients who require care.

Similarly, in The Coronavirus Is a Public Health Problem, But It Is Not a Death Sentence (Feb. 29), I compared the coronavirus to the influenza virus or flu, and noted that “despite the surprisingly high number of flu-induced deaths or fatalities, there is no widespread fear or panic over the influenza virus.”

Influenza v. Coronavirus. Again, this is true, but it misses the point: While the coronavirus and influenza virus are similar, there are important differences—differences that legitimately can and should cause much greater public concern over the coronavirus.

The most significant differences appear to be the fatality rate and the incidence of severe and complicating illness.

The fatality rate for both the coronavirus and flu are low; however, the fatality rate for the coronavirus is significantly higher, and not just for the elderly, but for younger age groups as well. Ditto the incidence of severe and complicating illness.

Tomas Puyeo, who has done an extensive analysis of the coronavirus, says “countries that are prepared” will see a fatality rate of roughly .5 percent (South Korea) to roughly .9 percent (mainland China excluding Wuhan, where the virus originated).

“Countries that are overwhelmed” by the virus (Italy, for instance) will have a fatality rate of between three percent and five percent, roughly, he notes.

Scott Gottlieb, a medical doctor and former head of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in the Trump administration, appears to concur with this estimate.

Here in the United States, Gottlieb told CBS News’ Face the Nation, “the fatality rate [from the coronavirus] might not reach one percent,” but it’s also not gonna be as low as we routinely see for the seasonal flu (.1 percent) or a mild flu outbreak (.05 percent). 

While these obviously are small percentages either way, the differences are significant—and they can have large and dramatic effects on our healthcare system, especially when dealing with a U.S. population of more than 327 million people. One percent, of course, is 10 times .1 percent.

Severity. Which means that the fatality rate for the coronavirus could be 10 times what we see for the flu.

“And it’s not just older Americans, as tragic as that is,” says Gottlieb. “If you look at 40-year-olds, the case fatality rate has been anywhere between .2 and .4 percent. So that means as many as one in 250 forty- to fifty-year-olds who get this [virus] could die from it.”

Moreover, as Julie McMurry, MPH, observes at FlattenTheCurve:

Mortality is not the full picture: Italy reports that 10% of cases need not just hospitalization but also ICU care—and they need that care over a period of 3-6 weeks. This is unsustainable.

Even if these figures are inflated because they reflect the experience of other countries with less capable and less advance healthcare systems, the fact remains that, as National Public Radio’s Fran Kritz and Pien Huang report, relying upon data from the World Health Organization and China:

[For] about 1 in 5 patients, the infection gets worse. About 14 percent of cases can develop into severe disease, where patients may need supplemental oxygen.

And 6 percent of cases become critical and may experience septic shock—a significant drop in blood pressure that can lead to stroke, heart or respiratory failure, failure of other organs or death.

“The bad news is the other 20 percent get the illness severe enough to require hospitalization,” reports NBC News’ Elizabeth Chuck

These patients may not be reflected in the mortality rates for the coronavirus. However, their condition is quite serious and imposes a real burden on the healthcare system.

And that is the point. If too many people contract the coronavirus too quickly and it spreads too rapidly, we risk overwhelming our healthcare system such that it cannot cope with the volume of patients who require care.

We then could be in the unenviable position of northern Italy—which, as I have reported, is now forced to ration care and make heart-wrenching decisions about whom to treat and whom to let die.

Acknowledging Error. I offer up this mea culpa because, as I’ve explained, my intent here at ResCon1 is to pursue the truth regardless of the consequences. That means acknowledging my own errors in reporting and analysis, even as I criticize others for theirs.

As a classical (19th Century) liberal or modern-day (20th Century) conservative, I believe that truth is best served by a free and unfettered marketplace of ideas, where open competition and public scrutiny enhance knowledge and understanding.

Indeed, none of us has—none of us can have—a monopoly on the truth. And this is especially true when it concerns a rapidly unfolding story about a new and challenging topic such as the coronavirus. 

For this reason, we must acknowledge our mistakes and strive to do better. It is in that spirit, that I readily acknowledge my own mistakes and misperceptions. 

Feature photo credit: Peggy Noonan as shown in the Wall Street Journal.

Yes, Let’s Rewrite History—Just Don’t Falsify It While Doing So

Historical Revisionism is nothing new and it’s actually a good thing. The falsification of history, however, is a more recent development; and that, obviously, is a bad thing.

On both the left and the right today, there’s a lot of concern about “rewriting history.”

“The entire effort to rewrite American history makes my blood boil,” writes a reader in the Fence Post, a nationwide agricultural newspaper that reaches more than 80,000 readers weekly.

“The Civil War happened. That’s a historic fact… The history of the Civil War will not go away just because it’s protested today.”

A left-wing writer, likewise, complains that the Democratic Party “is clearly uninterested in truth or accountability, and is more than willing to rewrite history to advance its political goals.”

Why does the writer say this? Because President Obama had the audacity this week to praise his predecessor, George W. Bush, for having “a basic regard for the rule of law and the importance of our institutions of democracy.”

Balderdash! says the writer, and Obama should know better.

Rewriting v. Falsifying. Of course, what these and other observers are criticizing is not the rewriting of history per se, but rather the falsifying of history as they see it. In truth, history is constantly being rewritten in light of new events and circumstances to glean lessons from the past.

This is a good and laudatory thing and something that should be encouraged. 

Some of the best history, in fact, is history that has been rewritten by historians who look back upon our past from a new angle or fame of reference to draw insights that may have been hidden or obscured by previous interpretations of history.

In 1957, for instance, an unknown assistant secretary of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, Bray Hammond, wrote a magisterial history, Banks and Politics in America: From the Revolution the Civil War, that completely upended the history of Andrew Jackson and the Jacksonian era in American politics.

In so doing, Hammond took direct aim another great work of history, The Age of Jackson, by the acclaimed Harvard historian, Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr. The Age of Jackson (1945) was itself a work of revisionist historical scholarship that won rave reviews.

Both Hammond and Schlesinger, in fact, won the Pulitzer Prize for History for their respective books and have contributed mightily to our historical understanding.

Both books were sincere, good-faith attempts to interpret and make sense of the past. However, they employed contrasting analytical frameworks that created widely divergent narrative histories.

For Schlesinger, the Age of Jackson was all about class conflict and the efforts by the working and laboring classes to seek redress from the government against business domination and control. In so doing, Schlesinger argued, Jackson was the precursor to Franklin Roosevelt and the New Deal.

Schlesinger thus broke from the previously dominant historical narrative, which argued that sectional differences, not class differences, defined American politics in the Age of Jackson; and that Jackson himself was the political embodiment of the country’s ascendant western frontier.

Hammond, meanwhile, offered an altogether different interpretation dubbed the entrepreneurial thesis.

Hammond argued that the Jacksonian era was, indeed, defined through class conflict. However, the class conflict pitted not the laboring classes against the business interests, but rather a new class of entrepreneurs and speculators who conspired against the old monied interests. This new class was eager for easy money to fuel their entrepreneurial and speculative ventures. 

The Jacksonians, Hammond argued, employed virtuous and high-minded democratic rhetoric to conceal their true motives and true objectives, which were self-interested and self-serving. And the end result of their attack on America’s Second National Bank, Hammond wrote, were economically damaging and reverberated for decades.

All three of these historical interpretations—the initially dominant sectional conflict thesis, Schlesinger’s class conflict thesis, and Hammond’s entrepreneurial thesis—involved rewriting history.

However, none of these interpretations involved falsifying history, and that is a crucial distinction. The essential historical facts in question were all agreed upon and not in dispute.

What was in dispute (and still is to a considerable extent) is how to interpret and apply those facts to our understanding of history.

To be sure, sometimes newly discovered facts are unearthed that alter our understanding of history. That certainly was the case with Banks and Politics in America: From the Revolution the Civil War.

Because he worked for the Federal Reserve, Hammond understood banking and finance in a way that Schlesinger and previous historians simply did not. Thus he was able to bring to light new facts that helped to explain how the Second Bank worked and what its demise meant for the U.S. economy.

Still, in the main, the disagreements here are not about the facts of history; they are about the interpretation and application of those facts.

False History. This is not to say that all interpretations of history are equally valid or legitimate. To the contrary: there is such a thing as bad, biased, and simply false history or historical writing. Howard Zinn’s A People’s History of the United States comes to mind.

Historian Michael Kazin (no conservative, by the way, but rather, a man of the left) called A People’s Historya Manichean fable… better suited to a conspiracy-monger’s website than to a work of scholarship.” Another reviewer called the book “absolutely atrocious agit-prop.”

In short, Zinn was a Marxist political activist, not a serious and fair-minded historian, and there is real difference between these two types. But for serious historians, disagreements in interpretation and analysis can be legitimate and illuminating.

The real risk is that an historian can become so blinded by his frame of reference that he distorts or falsifies history by omitting or glossing over other critical facts and perspectives that complicate or contradict his thesis.

James Bouie. This is what appears to have happened to New York Times columnist Jamelle Bouie.

Although Bouie is a journalist, and not an historian per se, he is, nonetheless, a serious student of history. However, in his zeal to argue that America’s black slaves were not simply passive victims, but instead, had real agency and self-awareness, he offers up a very bad and inaccurate historical account.

“Neither Abraham Lincoln nor the Republican Party freed the slaves,” Bouie brazenly asserts in a recent column.

They helped set freedom in motion and eventually codified it into law with the 13th Amendment, but they were not themselves responsible for the end of slavery. They were not the ones who brought about its final destruction.

Who freed the slaves? The slaves freed the slaves.

This is complete nonsense. As National Review’s Dan McLaughlin points out in a thorough debunking of Bouie’s thesis:

Bouie is right that black Americans played a significant role in contributing to the abolitionist movement, the escalating sectional tensions that led to secession, the transformation of the Civil War in the North from a war for the Union to a war of liberation, and the Union’s victory.

He is wrong to claim that those contributions in and of themselves were enough to bring about the end of slavery, and that Lincoln, the Republicans, the Union Army, and the majority of the American population were merely passive conduits, bobbing like a cork on the unstoppable streams of history.

Bouie skips the crucial step. All the abolitionist agitation in the world only mattered because the people with real political, military, cultural, and economic power in America—the federal government, Northern state governments, the military, the churches, the leaders of the economy, and ultimately, the voting public—eventually chose to side with the abolitionist movement.

It was not a given that they would; in the 1820s and 1830s, they had chosen not to.

In short, Bouie took a legitimate historical insight—that America’s black slaves helped to effect their emancipation—and blew it up into a holistic explanation when it quite obviously is nothing of the sort.

Historical Moment. So, what does this have do with our present political and historical moment?

Well, American history today is under fire and under review in a way that it has not been in quite some time if ever. Indeed, the very legitimacy of the American founding is being called in to question, as “woke,” left-wing radicals seek to advance a far-left agenda.

For this reason, we are seeing historical statues and monuments being toppled, vandalized and defaced as new historical narratives are introduced into the public debate and foisted upon the public.

In key respects, these new historical narratives are really not new. They’ve been adopted in colleges and universities, elementary and secondary schools, for decades, and they are not entirely bad.

They typically give greater historical weight to the experiences of blacks, Indians or native Americans, women, and other marginalized groups.

Cultural Marxists. But as with Howard Zinn’s People’s History and James Bouie’s column, these narratives often are highly politicized and distorted, and designed to advance an explicitly left-wing political agenda.

Their intent is to deconstruct America and create a new country that will embody Marxian and socialist ideals.

But whereas Marx believed that capitalism could be undermined by appeals to the proletariat or working class, his modern-day heirs recognize that America’s greatest source of vulnerability and weakness lie in its racially troubled past; and that appeals to white guilt and black racial grievance are far better suited to deconstruct and remake the United States.

This means that we should be wary and discerning of new historical narratives, and equally wary and discerning of historical groupthink and consensus.

Simplistic and reductionist histories that attempt to explain the past through one narrow prism are especially suspect. History, like life itself, is complicated and typically results from a variety of sometimes seemingly irreconcilable factors and decisions.

All of us, moreover, are going to have to become better consumers of history. This means referring to source documents—many of which are available on the Internet—and making our own assessments of the past.

Patriots, meanwhile, liberal and conservative, must engage in their own historical revisionism. We must rewrite history for a new generation of Americans: poorly educated, ill-informed, and lacking in historical knowledge and perspective.

This new generation has been fed a lie—to wit: that American history is a source of shame; and that Western Civilization itself is a mistake that must be corrected. But in truth, what must be corrected is this false and dangerous narrative.

That means rewriting history in light of modern-day circumstances to illuminate the past for a people increasingly haunted by the darkness. 

Feature photo credit: Historian Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr. via the Washington Examiner.

Should the West Worry about Putin’s ‘Red Lines’ or Its Own?

America and NATO need to focus on what they will do to defeat and discredit Putin.

The commentariat has been fiercely debating whether to impose a “no-fly zone” over Ukraine. This is an interesting tactical question that is worthy of debate; however, the more fundamental and important question is strategic:

Do America and NATO wish to defeat and discredit Putin in Ukraine, or are we simply looking to “deescalate tensions” and give Putin an “off-ramp” so that he can “save face”?

Unfortunately, too many in the West are intent on trying to appease Putin instead of defeating and discrediting him. Their ostensible reason for doing so is to “stop nuclear war” (the New York Times’ Ross Douthat) or at least prevent a wider war (U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken).

Off-Ramps. Of course, as is becoming increasingly clear, Putin himself has absolutely no interest in any “off-ramp” or “deescalation of tensions.” The Russians have willfully violated ceasefire agreements even as they deliberately target civilian population centers and commit war crimes.

The Washington Post reports:

“It’s important to remember that throughout this crisis created by Putin and Russia, we’ve sought to provide possible off-ramps to President Putin,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters in Washington on Wednesday.

“He’s the only one who can decide whether or not to take them. So far, every time there’s been an opportunity to do just that, he’s pressed the accelerator and continued down this horrific road that he’s been pursuing.”

Exactly. “Off-ramps” and “face-saving measures” are useless if Putin has no interest in that. They also are dangerous and provocative because they communicate weakness and a lack of resolve.

Nuclear War. Indeed, contra Douthat, a nuclear conflagration in Ukraine is more likely to result if America and NATO are not crystal clear about what will invite a devastating Western response.

For this reason, the West needs to draw its own “red lines” involving unacceptable Russian behavior and actions. Otherwise, Putin may be tempted to test fate—and us.

Instead, though, the Biden administration, and Western policymakers in general, have been obsessed with Putin’s red lines, real and imagined, and with what Eliot A. Cohen rightly calls, “self-deterrence”: explaining in detail what we absolutely will not do.

For example: we will not deploy ground troops; we will not deliver MiG fighter jets; we will not conduct long-planned nuclear tests; we will not impose a no-fly zone; we will not sanction Russian oil (until we did two days ago)…

As the Wall Street Journal Editorial Board puts it: “Instead of deterring Mr. Putin, Mr. Biden is letting the Russian deter the U.S.”

This is, needless to say, self-defeating. As Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) explains:

There’s a sentiment that we’re fearful about what Putin might do and what he might consider as an escalation. It’s time for him to be fearful of what we might do.

The only way to get Putin to act in a way that may be able to save lives of Ukrainians is if he fears us more than we fear him…

He’s got to think about what happens if he provokes us: because they [the Russian military] could be obliterated by the forces of NATO.

Exactly. The Russian military has been exposed in Ukraine as subpar and not at all ready for prime time. Their operations have been slow, plodding, disjointed, unimaginative, and utterly unimpressive.

U.S. officials estimate that, in these first two weeks of fighting, as many as 6,000 Russians have been killed. In its nearly two decades in Afghanistan, by contrast, the United States lost fewer than 2,500 soldiers.

In fact, because of the skill and tenacity of the Ukrainian military, as well as the courage and spirt of the Ukrainian people, the prospect of a strategic Russian defeat is likely—even if, as still appears probable, Russia ultimately wins a short-term but pyrrhic military victory and conquers Ukraine.

The West should relish the opportunity to defeat and discredit Putin. For two decades now, he has been a clear and present danger to the rules-based international order worldwide and to peace and stability in Europe.

Under his reign, Russia has waged war on its neighbors and threatened free and sovereign nations throughout Eastern Europe and Eurasia. Ukraine should be a wakeup call not to find a way to accommodate Putin, but to force him from power by making his position untenable.

Russia can have a new leader and a new leadership class. That is desirable and possible—but only if America and NATO stop self-deterring and worrying about Putin’s “red lines,” real and imagined.

Instead, the West needs to focus on its strategic, wartime objectives: a free, sovereign, and independent Ukraine; the withdrawal of all Russian troops from Ukraine, Belarus, and Georgia; and a new Russian government that respects international law and the territorial integrity of its neighbors.

This, in turn, will require a focus on deterrence and drawing our own inviolable “red lines.”

Featured photo credit: Screen shot of Senator Mitt Romney (R-Utah).

Trump’s State of the Union Address Shows That He Intends to Compete Hard for Black Votes

The most politically significant thing about President Trump’s State of the Union Address is that it shows he intends to compete hard for the votes of African Americans in the forthcoming 2020 election.

He thus directly appealed to these voters by pointing, with justifiable pride, to his record as president:

The unemployment rate for African Americans, Hispanic Americans, and Asian Americans has reached the lowest levels in history. African-American youth unemployment has reached an all-time low. African-American poverty has declined to the lowest rate ever recorded…

Workers without a high school diploma have achieved the lowest unemployment rate recorded in U.S. history. A record number of young Americans are now employed…

In eight years under the last administration, over 300,000 working-age people dropped out of the workforce. In just three years of my administration, 3.5 million people, working-age people, have joined the workforce.

Since my election, the net worth of the bottom half of wage-earners has increased by 47 percent, three times faster than the increase for the top 1 percent.

After decades of flat and falling incomes, wages are rising fast — and, wonderfully, they are rising fastest for low-income workers, who have seen a 16 percent pay increase since my election.

This is a blue-collar boom…

Our roaring economy has, for the first time ever, given many former prisoners the ability to get a great job and a fresh start.

This second chance at life is made possible because we passed landmark criminal justice reform into law. Everybody said that criminal justice reform couldn’t be done, but I got it done, and the people in this room got it done.

Trump’s concerted effort to win the support of African Americans will strike many political pundits as either fanciful or ludicrous; but it’s actually very wise and strategic: because black voters may well hold the key to Trump’s reelection.

Conservative pundits think it’s fanciful because, they note, African Americans have been reliably Democratic voters for generations, and there is little reason, they think, to believe that will change in 2020.

So-called progressive pundits, likewise, think it’s ludicrous because, in their view, Trump is an obvious racist whom African Americans could never seriously consider supporting.

Trump and African Americans. But both the left and the right are wrong about Trump and the black vote. The Senate’s only African American Senator, Tim Scott (R-South Carolina), told Fox News’s Martha MacCallum this evening that four recent polls show Trump getting as much as 30 percent of the black vote.

Scott said we should discount those numbers and cut those estimates in half. He thinks around 15 percent of the black vote is a reasonable target for the president. If that’s true and those numbers hold up on election day, Trump will easily win reelection.

(Scott, not coincidentally, was specifically recognized by Trump for sponsoring Opportunity Zones in disadvantaged neighborhoods, many of them predominantly African American.

(“Jobs and investments,” said Trump, “are pouring into 9,000 previously neglected neighborhoods thanks to Opportunity Zones, a plan spearheaded by Senator Tim Scott as part of our great Republican tax cuts.”)

The Democrats simply cannot afford to lose more than 5-10 percent of the black vote, especially in key swing states like Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, Colorado, and Wisconsin. And, despite Trump’s myriad flaws, the man is clearly not a racist, and most African American voters know this.

Certainly, the African American celebrities whom Trump has befriended and worked with over the past several decades know this. They can attest to Trump’s good will, even if his rhetoric is sometimes lacking and occasionally cringe-inducing.

Right Action. Competing hard for the votes of African Americans is smart politics and the right thing to do. It is smart politics, because America is rapidly becoming more racially and ethnically diverse. Thus to remain electorally competitive in 2020 and beyond, Republicans very much need to win more of the minority vote.

More importantly, though, it is the right thing to do. All Americans have a stake in our future and thus deserve the respect and consideration of our two major political parties.

National unity and social cohesion, moreover, are best served when key racial and demographic groups are well-represented throughout the political spectrum and across the political aisle.

Plus: competition in the political marketplace, no less than competition in the economic marketplace, spurs policy excellence and innovation.

The president may or may not win 15 percent of the black vote; we’ll see. But both he and the Republican Party, as well as the nation, will be better off and better served for seriously trying to do just that.

Feature photo credit: The New York Times.

Chris Christie’s WSJ COVID Op-Ed Leaves Too Much Fat on the Bone

Chris Christie wants desperately to get back in the good graces of the media and political elite. So he wrote a self-serving op-ed that misleads the public about masks, while failing to tell the truth about what really must be done to combat COVID.

Chris Christie thinks he erred by not wearing a mask. I’m here to tell you that his real problem is gross obesity; and that if he cares about his health, he needs to go on a diet and exercise, and worry less about wearing a mask.

And what is true of Christie is true of most Americans: Our biggest health risk, by far, is not that we fail to cover up (our faces); it is that we fail to cut back (on our consumption of food).

Christie, of course, is the former Republican governor of New Jersey. He contracted the coronavirus after huddling in close quarters with President Trump and other advisers as they prepared Trump for his Sept. 29, 2020, presidential debate with Joe Biden.

“I should have worn a mask,” Christie writes in the Wall Street Journal.

It was a serious failure for me, as a public figure, to go maskless at the White House. I paid for it, and I hope Americans can learn from my experience. I am lucky to be alive. It could easily have been otherwise.

Evidence and Data. In truth, there is no real evidence or data to demonstrate that a mask would have prevented Christie from contracting the coronavirus. His problem was not that he failed to wear a mask; it was that he failed to social distance by going to the White House in the first place. (Have you heard of Zoom or FaceTime, governor?)

And, as far as being “lucky to be alive,” this is hyperbolic. Again, the data show otherwise: According to Johns Hopkins University’s Coronavirus Resource Center, the case fatality rate in the United States for COVID19 is 2.6 percent.

In other words, more than 97 percent of those who get the virus here (confirmed cases) do not die as a result.

In fact, because physicians and patients understand the virus better and have developed better therapeutics and better treatment regimens, increasing numbers of Americans—including, for instance, President Trump—are recovering remarkably quickly and with fewer side effects and complications.

Obesity. But if you’re obese—as millions of Americans are—you are at heightened risk not only of contracting the virus, but of suffering serious complications as a result, including death. As Yale Medicine reports:

“We all know that older age is the greatest risk factor. But obesity is emerging as one of the next most important ones,” says Dr. Ania Jastreboff, MD, PhD, a Yale Medicine endocrinologist and obesity medicine physician.

“Additionally, if you consider other diseases implicated with COVID-19 severity such as type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, or hypertension, obesity is a common contributor underlying all of them.”

And it looks like the excess weight itself is problematic, not just the other health conditions it causes.

“Early data support that obesity is an independent risk factor, meaning that if you control for diabetes, heart problems, hypertension, and other medical conditions, obesity—itself a chronic disease—may potentially be the unifying disease involved in exacerbating COVID-19,” Dr. Jastreboff says.

In fact, one study out of New York City showed obesity was a stronger factor predicting hospitalization for COVID-19 than high blood pressure, diabetes, or cancer—or even pulmonary, kidney, or coronary disease.

Another study, which looked at hospitalized COVID-19 patients under age 60 in New York City, found that individuals who have obesity were twice as likely to be hospitalized and even more likely to require critical care than those who do not have it.

This matters because obesity is an epidemic problem in America. Some 42.4 percent of adults, and 20.6 percent of adolescents (12-19 year-olds), are obese, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Christie is one of them. He has been chronically obese his entire adult life. Yet, nowhere in his Wall Street Journal mea culpa does Christie mention his weight—or obesity in general—as a problem or risk factor for COVID. But doing so, obviously, would have been a real public health service.

Nor does Christie mention the fact that patients who have taken Vitamin D and Zinc supplements have averted the worst outbreaks of the virus. But again, doing so would have been a real public health service.

Instead, Christie gratuitously attacks a straw man: people who don’t wear a mask because they supposedly think a mask is a sign of weakness or political virtue signaling.

Unmasked. In truth, there are perfectly legitimate reasons not to wear a mask. These include:

  • the fact that there are no valid scientific studies or data to demonstrate that masks are effective at stopping the spread of the coronavirus or any other virus;
  • masks instill in many people a false sense of confidence that they are safe and protected by a mask, worn either by themself or by others; and that they can refrain, therefore, from social distancing;
  • masks inhibit effective communication—including, importantly, non-verbal, facial communication; and
  • in places that have good ventilation, and which allow for social distancing, masks are, at best, superfluous, redundant, and unnecessary.

Polarization. Christie also laments the “polarization of something as practical as a mask.” But who has polarized the mask and made it a symbol of seriousness about COVID19?

The media and political elite, who have been on hair-trigger alert for whenever a political or public figure—especially President Trump—is or is not wearing a mask.

The President, by contrast, has been a model of tolerance and open-mindedness: by choosing sometimes to wear a mask and other times not to wear a mask. Trump, moreover, has allowed his staff to don masks without judgment or pressure from him either to do so or not to do so.

In short, Christie’s complaint about the polarization of the mask is misplaced; and his focus on the mask as the critical public health measure that we all should embrace is equally misplaced.

And Christie’s focus is deliberately misplaced because he is less interested in performing a genuine public health service than he is in getting back in the good graces of the media and political elite.

In truth, if you want to avoid coming down with a bad case of the coronavirus, go on a diet, exercise, and lose weight. Take Vitamin D and Zinc supplements. Social distance and avoid crowds.

Wear a mask if it makes you feel better, but as the data clearly shows: wearing a mask is the very last thing you should worry about.

Just don’t ask Chris Christie. He’s too interested in what the media and political elite think than in what the science demonstrates.

Feature photo credit: Chris Christie courtesy of Chance Dagger’s Notes on Contemporary Life.

Will Bernie and the Woke Progressives Lead the Democrats to Certain Defeat in November?

Are the Democrats blowing it? Are they about to hand the election to the one man they despise above all else, Donald J. Trump? That’s the fear of David Frum, who makes precisely that case in a brilliant and insightful essay in The Atlantic.

Frum, of course, is the intellectual leader of the Never Trump movement and someone who’s moved left politically in the past 15 years, ever since warning of the “axis of evil” as a speechwriter for George W. Bush in 2003. Still, he is a keen observer of the political scene and someone well worth listening to.

Frum focuses his firepower on Bernie Sanders, who continues to surge in the polls. Bernie, Frum argues, can’t win. His positions on matters of economic and foreign policy are too extreme and too easily caricatured and attacked to prevail against Trump.

Plus: he has real trouble appealing to suburban women and African Americans, “the two groups whose greater or lesser enthusiasm will make the difference for a Trump challenger in November,” Frum argues.

Equally worrisome: Bernie has something of a glass jaw. He “is a fragile candidate… [who has never] had to face serious personal scrutiny.” He and his team

“are experts in Democratic Party factional infighting. Few have dealt with people who do not play by the rules of the mainstream Democratic Party. They have always been the rule breakers, the people who got inside the other team’s decision cycle.

“They have been the Minutemen fighting the Redcoats, picking off the other side’s regulars from behind trees and fences. Now they are about to experience what happens when a militia faces off on an open field against a ruthless modern army with cluster bombs and napalm. They will be shredded and torched.”

But if Bernie is the Democrats’ weakest candidate and a surefire loser in a general election matchup against Trump, the source of his political appeal is nonetheless instructive, says Frum, and something that Dems need to understand, internalize and embrace.

Simply put, Bernie is an old-fashioned socialist who focuses on bread-and-butter economic issues—jobs, healthcare, education, student debt relief, the social-safety net, et al. Other left-wing progressives running for president—Elizabeth Warren most notably—focus more on identity politics and on being “woke” or politically correct.

Frum is too polite to explicitly say it (especially in the pages of The Atlantic, which caters to woke, upscale progressives), but identity politics, left-wing cultural grievances, and PC purity tests are a real turnoff to most ordinary, working- and middle-class voters, black and white.

In fact, I believe that Trump’s 2016 win is far more attributable to the Democrats’ increasing embrace of cultural Marxism than it is to Trump’s embrace of economic populism.

Frum rightly fears that if the Dems continue to lean forward where they are weakest, on matters of culture and identity politics, they will lose in November to Trump. Thus he implores Democrats to lay off of their obsession with woke, identity politics, and, instead, to embrace Bernie’s more universal, broad-based, populist appeal.

It’s sound political advice, but will Democrats accept it?

Frum points to the fundamental divide within the Democratic Party: between the mostly white, affluent, upscale, college-educated progressives, for whom being woke is everything; and less affluent working- and middle-class blacks, who care more about the practical bread-and-butter issues that are at the heart of the Sanders’ campaign.

The white, affluent elite dominate the political dialogue and discussion and are the Dem’s donor class. However, the less affluent middle- and working class blacks are “in many ways the true base of the Democratic Party,” Frum says. They are the voters who will make all the difference in the South Carolina primary and, on Super Tuesday, in the South and industrial Midwest.

Ironically, Sanders has had real difficulty appealing to black voters; but Frum sees evidence that this is changing. “The latest CNN poll,” he notes, “showed Sanders erasing Biden’s lead among nonwhite voters—perhaps in spite of Sanders’s indifference to identity politics, or maybe, just maybe, because of that indifference” (though Frum acknowledges that this CNN poll may be an outlier).

If the polls are correct, then Biden is Frum’s only real hope for stopping Sanders and beating Trump. Biden has held up well, but he is still 77 years old and clearly not the man or candidate he was 10 or 20 years ago. He’s lost a step, and father time can be unkind.

Yet, as Frum observes, “the left-but-not-woke idea does have power—including with many members of racial minorities.” What we don’t yet know is whether that idea has enough power to overcome the Democratic Party’s woke brigades, or whether, instead, that idea will become their latest victim. All eyes are on Iowa, New Hampshire, and especially more racially and ethnically diverse South Carolina and Nevada. Stay tuned.

Feature photo credit: Associated Press via VOA News.

To Win, the GOP Need to be Conservative, Not Populist

Republicans will win in 2024 if they eschew Trumpian populism and embrace Bush-Cheney conservatism.

Although former President Trump is obviously responsible for the Republican Party’s disastrous and historically unprecedented subpar performance in the 2022 mid-term elections, his diehard defenders and apologists are warning the GOP not to abandon the “populist agenda” that supposedly made Trump, in their view, a successful politician.

Fox News host Laura Ingraham, for instance, credits Trump with energizing and “reinventing the GOP,” while setting it upon the path toward becoming a “multiracial working class party.”

In Ingraham’s view, Trump rejected the “pro-war” and “pro-CCP” (Communist Chinese Party) establishment GOP epitomized by former President George W. Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney, and 2008 GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney.

Ingraham warns Republicans against reverting back to the establishment’s supposed love for amnesty, open borders, endless wars, and unfair trade with China.

She essentially acknowledges that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is the presumptive 2024 GOP presidential nominee and warns him against being cooped by the dreaded GOP “establishment.”

Of course, this is a badly distorted and self-serving analysis that ignores many inconvenient truths.

For starters, Trump’s supposed political success is far less impressive than Ingraham suggests. The man won one fluke election (in 2016) against a very weak Democratic opponent (Hillary Clinton), and he did it by narrowly winning three states—Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania—with a large contingent of white working class voters.

Since then, thanks to Trump, the Republicans have been decimated in two of these states (Michigan and Pennsylvania), while barely hanging on in the third (Wisconsin).

Biden won all three states, of course, in 2020; and all three states have Democratic governors who just won election or reelection.

Pennsylvania and Michigan have two Democratic senators; Wisconsin has one. The sole Republican Senator, Ron Johnson in Wisconsin, barely won reelection against an extraordinarily weak Democratic opponent.

Dems, meanwhile, flipped both houses of the Michigan state legislature for the first time in nearly four decades, while apparently winning control of the Pennsylvania state House of Representatives.

The bottom line: the Republican Party in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin is in far worse shape, thanks to Trump, than it was seven years ago before he came on the political scene.

Michigan’s reelected Governor, Gretchen Whitmer, would be a very formidable Democratic presidential candidate in 2024. Ditto Pennsylvania’s newly elected governor, Josh Shapiro.

As a result, it is difficult to see how any Republican can win these states in 2024. And without winning at least one of these three states, it is difficult to see how any Republican can win the White House in 2024. The Electoral College math simply does not compute.

George W. Bush. In fact, to win in 2024, the Republicans’ best bet might be to essentially update or tweak what George W. Bush did in the Electoral College when he was elected and reelected president in 2000 and 2004, respectively.

That is, sweep the South and the West, while winning Iowa and New Hampshire, but losing Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia. That would give the Republican presidential candidate 271 Electoral College votes: one more than necessary to win the presidency (see the Electoral College map below).

That, of course, is precisely how Bush won the 2000 presidential election (see the Electoral College map above).

The Likely 2024 Electoral College map, courtesy of 270ToWin.com.

Yet, ironically, Ingraham derides Bush as the exemplar of all that is wrong with the Republican Party: because he was committed, supposedly, to “endless wars,” open borders, and trade with China.

Bush’s Policies. But while the Iraq War may have been a mistake, it was essentially over and won by the time Bush left office in 2008, thanks to “the surge” of U.S. troops and adoption of a winning military strategy.

The war in Afghanistan was still in a low boil, but if he had a third term, Bush almost certainly would have replicated “the surge” in Afghanistan to successfully end the war, or at least make it manageable without an abject American defeat and withdrawal.

It is true that Bush tried to solve the immigration crisis, but it is not true that he was committed to amnesty and open borders.

Unlike Trump, Bush did not support building a wall along the southern border, but remember: Trump himself never really built the wall either. He talked a good game, but failed to deliver. Just ask Ann Coulter.

Bush did try to engage China; but so, too, had every American president, Republican and Democrat, since Richard Nixon. This was a good-faith, decades-long effort that had to change as China’s adversarial posture vis-à-vis the United States became increasingly clear and transparent.

Thus a President Romney or a President McCain would have confronted China, but in a far more effective way than Trump: by better leveraging the strength of our allies in the Pacific—and without the collateral economic damage that resulted from ill-advised tariffs or taxes on American manufacturers and consumers.

Trump’s Policies. Moreover, Trump’s political success, such as it was, resulted from traditional conservative Republican policies, not newfound populist ideas.

Corporate tax reform, for instance, ushered in the lowest unemployment rate in nearly 50 years and the lowest black unemployment rate in recorded history. And energy deregulation resulted in American energy independence for the first time in our nation’s history.

Trump also stopped the flow of illegal immigrants pouring across the U.S.-Mexican border, albeit without the wall or in spite of the wall.

Trump accomplished this belatedly in his administration by finally adopting regulatory reforms, such as a “remain in Mexico” policy for would-be asylum seekers and DACA restrictions, that effectively secured the border.

On the international stage, Trump definitely was not an isolationist or a non-interventionist. He ordered ISIS destroyed and Iranian General Qasem Soleimani killed, and he achieved both of these objectives quickly through the use of American military power.

Bush v. Trump. Yet, despite these policy successes, Trump failed to win a majority of the popular vote in both 2020 and 2016. As David Frum points out:

He lost the popular vote in 2016. He lost the House in 2018. He lost the popular vote and the Electoral College in 2020. He lost the Senate in 2021.

Since 2000, there have been six presidential elections, and thus 12 presidential nominations by the two major parties. In his share of votes cast, Trump finished tenth and 11th out of the 12: behind Mitt Romney, behind John Kerry, behind Al Gore.

In fact, the only Republican presidential candidate to win a majority of the popular vote in the past 32 years (eight presidential elections) was George W. Bush, in 2004.

So let’s not pretend that Trump achieved unparalleled political success when he clearly did not. And let’s not pretend that he outperformed his Republican predecessors at the ballot box when the facts show otherwise.

In truth, Trump achieved some political and policy success by forthrightly addressing, or trying to address, new problems that had arisen in the new millennium.

For the most part, he adopted traditional conservative policies that proved successful. When, on occasion, Trump deviated from these conservative policies to embrace Ingraham’s preferred  populist positions, he was far less successful.

Trade is a good example. As Douglas A. Irwin explains, Trump’s ill-advised tariffs increased the trade deficit; eliminated tens of thousands of U.S. manufacturing jobs; reduced household incomes; and were a drag on economic growth.

“Numerous studies, add Jeb Hensarling, the former chairman of the House Financial Services Committee (2013-19), “have shown that almost all the costs of tariffs initiated under the Trump administration were paid by American consumers and businesses.”

Conservatism, Not Populism. The truth is Trump’s political success has little to do with populism and everything to do with conservatism.

Populism, in fact, got Trump in trouble. Jan. 6 populism, for instance, was an unmitigated disaster. It haunted Republican candidates nationwide in the 2022 mid-terms, while destroying whatever chance Trump had to win a second term in 2024.

Ingraham, then, has it precisely backwards. The danger for Gov. DeSantis and the Republican Party is that they try to ape Trump’s populism while giving short shrift to the conservative policies that actually proved successful, substantively and politically, for Trump.

Conclusion. In other words, contra Ingraham, we need a more conservative and less populist Republican Party.

We need a Republican Party that applies tried-and-true conservative principles to modern-day problems. We need a Republican Party that believes in markets, American military power, and parental sovereignty and choice.

Therein lies public policy success. Therein lies political victory—in 2024 and beyond. Populism is a mirage that will only lead Republicans astray down the primrose path to defeat and permanent minority status.

Feature photo credit: the 2000 presidential election Electoral College map, courtesy of 270ToWin.com.

10 Inconvenient Questions for Democrats About the Fight Over the Supreme Court

  1. Where in the Constitution, exactly, does it prohibit a president from appointing someone to fill a vacancy on the Supreme Court in an election year?
  1. Previous American presidents—including Thomas Jefferson, Abraham Lincoln, and Woodrow Wilson—nominated Supreme Court justices in an election year, and the Senate confirmed those nominees before the election.

Other American presidents—including John Adams, Ulysses S. Grant, and Calvin Coolidge—nominated justices after the election but before the inauguration; and those nominees, too, were confirmed by the Senate.

Were these American presidents guilty of some illegal or damnable transgression—or instead, were they exercising their lawful authority under the Constitution?

  1. Assume the shoe was on the other foot, so to speak. It is Sept. 18, 2012. Obama is president; he is up for reelection but trailing in the polls; the Democrats control the Senate but risk losing control after the election; and Justice Scalia has died.

Would not Obama nominate a new justice to replace Scalia, and would not Senate Democrats act to confirm Obama’s nominee?

  1. Long-standing Senate tradition (not law) allowed for use of the filibuster to prevent judicial nominees from being confirmed by the Senate. Stopping a filibuster requires 60 votes.

Practically speaking, given the makeup of the Senate, to reach the 60-vote threshold typically requires at least a bare minimum of bipartisan support.

However, in 2013, Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nevada) prohibited use of the filibuster for most judicial nominees. Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) then followed suit in 2017 and eliminated use of the filibuster for Supreme Court nominees.

This allowed Senate Republicans to confirm Trump appointee Brett Kavanaugh with just one Democratic vote; and it will allow Senate Republicans to approve Ginsburg’s replacement with, potentially, no Democratic votes.

Given this history, was it a mistake for Harry Reid to eliminate the filibuster for judicial nominees? Did this not pave the way for Senate confirmation of Trump’s three Supreme Court nominees?

  1. Since the middle of the 20th Century, Democrats and leftist have relied upon the courts, or the judicial branch of government, to achieve political and public policy objectives that they never could have achieved legislatively—for example:
  • banning voluntary school prayer;
  • requiring abortion on demand;
  • mandating various and sundry environmental protection measures, school and prison reforms; and now:
  • dictating federal immigration policy and state voting requirements.

Has it been it a mistake to rely so heavily on the courts and the judiciary to achieve your political and public policy objectives—especially since Republican court appointees are often unwilling to accede to assertions of judicial supremacy vis-a-vis the executive and legislative branches of government?

  1. Do you believe there are any limits on the jurisdiction of the courts, or is every political and policy issue justiciable?
  1. Some Democratic leaders—including House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerry Nadler (D-New York)—have called on Senate Democrats to expand the size of the Supreme Court and pack it with more liberal or activist judges.

Justice Ginsburg, however, said court-packing is a bad idea because it would undermine the Court’s legitimacy and weaken public trust in the institution.

Who’s right about expanding or packing the Court: Chairman Nadler or Justice Ginsburg?

  1. An independent judiciary free of political coercion or control is one of the pillars of American democracy.

Yet in recent years, this independence has been threatened by Democratic Senators such as Charles Schumer (D-New York), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-Rhode Island), and Richard Blumenthal (D-Connecticut), all of whom have warned that unless the Court rules in a “progressive” direction, it risks being brought to heel and radically restructured.

Can we not agree that while we certainly can criticize Supreme Court decisions, we ought to refrain from demanding that the Court rule a certain way or risk suffering some vague but ominous-sounding consequences?

Do not such threats strike at the very heart of judicial independence?

  1. Some Senate Democrats—including Dick Durbin (D-Illinois) Marie Hirono (D-Hawaii) and Kamala Harris (D-California)—have suggested that practicing Catholics who belong to Catholic religious organizations, such as the Knights of Columbus, should be disqualified from federal judgeships.

The reason: practicing Catholics have religious beliefs that are opposed to progressive orthodoxy on a range of issues (such as abortion and same-sex marriage) where progressive orthodoxy has been incorporated into the Constitution and established as new rights.

The Constitution, however, expressly prohibits a religious test for governmental service; and prominent Catholics such as President John F. Kennedy (a Democrat) and Justice Antonin Scalia (a Republican) have expressly said that their religious faith does not override the oath that they take to the Constitution of the United States.

Who’s right about whether practicing Catholics should be disqualified from the federal judiciary because of their religious faith: Senators Durbin, Hirono, and Harris, or President Kennedy, Justice Scalia, and the Constitution?

  1. Liberal interest groups and Democratic Senators have viciously and savagely attacked the character and good name of a series of recent Republican Supreme Court nominees—including Robert Bork, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, and Brett Kavanaugh.

Bork and Alito, for instance, was accused of being racists; Thomas was accused of sexual harassment; and Kavanaugh was accused of participating in a gang rape. The evidence for these accusations was utterly lacking. The charges reflected a partisan political desire to destroy these nominees before they could ascend to the high court.

Can we refrain from the politics of personal destruction and instead, debate the merits, qualifications, and judicial philosophies of Supreme Court nominees? Is that asking too much in this, the world’s greatest democracy?

Feature photo credit: Kevin Dietsch/UPI.

Does Putin’s Nuclear Threat Mean the West Should Stand Down in Ukraine?

The risk of nuclear war is minimal and cannot be an excuse for American and NATO inaction as innocent Ukrainians are slaughtered and Ukraine is destroyed. 

The West and, indeed, the world is united in its revulsion over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and perpetration of war crimes to bring that proud nation to heel.

Yet, whenever anyone dares to propose that the United States and its NATO allies intervene to stop the horrific slaughter of innocent men, women, and children, the councils of caution ominously warn that we must sit on our hands because Vladimir Putin has nuclear weapons and intervening could mean “World War III.”

Now, of course, no one can completely discount the possibility of nuclear war should America and NATO intervene in Ukraine. That is a risk in any conflict involving countries armed with nuclear weapons.

But a fair-minded analysis must conclude that the risk is quite small; and that, short of invading Russia, the United States and its NATO allies can and should legitimately use military power to stop the slaughter of innocent Ukrainians.

First, some military and historical perspective: Both the United States and Russia have had nuclear weapons for the past 70+ years. Yet, despite being engaged in a Cold War for nearly four decades (roughly 1950-1990), both countries never engaged in a nuclear exchange, let alone a nuclear war.

Does this mean a nuclear war now or in the future is an impossibility? No, of course not. But this historical record is a compelling precedent and reason for optimism.

In truth, the Russians realize, no less than us, that a nuclear war would mean the annihilation of their country and ours. As Alexander Vindman explains:

I can say from my significant experience dealing with the highest levels of Russia’s military leadership that it has no interest in a bilateral confrontation with the U.S.

Russian leaders have zero desire for nuclear war, and they understand that they would inevitably lose in a conventional war. However, Russia excels at compelling the U.S. to self-deter.

Exactly. And Vindman, unlike many Western commentators, knows of what he speaks. He served as the director for European affairs for the National Security Council when Trump was president.

History. Some commentators, such as the New York Times’ Ross Douthat, note that when, in 1956, the Soviet Union invaded Hungary, America and NATO stood down. Likewise, in 1968, when the Soviets invaded Czechoslovakia, the West stood down.

Why? Because we did dared not risk a nuclear conflagration with Russia.

But those are fallacious and misplaced historical analogies, because during the Cold War, Hungary and Czechoslovakia were Soviet satellite states.

Ukraine, by contrast, is a free and sovereign state. And, through its fierce and heroic resistance to Russian military domination today, Ukraine shows that it has absolutely no desire to forfeit its sovereignty and independence to Russia.

“When the Ukrainians are willing to spill their blood, seemingly without limit, in a wholly admirable cause, American hesitation is heartbreaking,” writes Eliot A. Cohen, a professor at The Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies.

Nuclear weapons, he adds,

are why the United States should refrain from attacking Russia directly, not why it should fear fighting Russians in a country they invaded.

Only a few years ago, the United States Air Force killed Russian Wagner mercenaries by the hundreds in Syria; American and Russian pilots tangled in the skies over Korea and possibly Vietnam.

Nuclear deterrence cuts both ways, and the Russian leadership knows it. Vladimir Putin and those around him are ill-informed but not mad, and the use of nuclear weapons would threaten their very survival.

Military Doctrine. Other commentators, such as David French, note that Russian military doctrine reportedly allows for the use of tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield; and that Russia has a huge numerical advantage in tactical nukes.

Maybe so, but military doctrine is not some rigid and inviolable instruction that mandates strategic and tactical decisions; rather, it is a guide for military decision-makers.

Moreover, Putin’s use of tactical or battlefield nukes would risk a counterstrike that could utterly destroy Moscow and other Russian cities, and Putin knows this.

It’s also important to note that although Putin is a dictator, the Russian state necessarily involves many more people, functionaries, and decision-makers.

Thus an order to use nuclear weapons would have to pass through several hands in addition to Putin’s; and there is no reason to think that everyone in and around Putin is irrational and suicidal.