How the 2024 GOP presidential frontrunner should triangulate between Biden and Trump on the issue of NATO and Ukraine.
Let’s cut to the chase: Biden wants to appease Germany and France. Trump wants to appease Putin. DeSantis should reject both of these defeatist “America Last” approaches.
Instead, DeSantis should say that he disagrees with Biden and Trump. Contra Biden, NATO unity is not the supreme value upon which American foreign policy ought to be based.
And so, appeasing German and French demands for a premature negotiated solution that sacrifices Ukrainian sovereignty is not something he will ever accept. That would only embolden Putin and invite a second Russian-Ukraine war.
New and Old Alliances. Moreover, all NATO countries have pledged to spend two percent of their GDP on defense. However, Germany and France have consistently failed to achieve this.
If this does not change pronto, DeSantis should say, then America will withdraw from NATO and form a new security alliance with Eastern Europe (Poland and Ukraine most notably), the Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania), Turkey, Britain, and the Nordic countries (Finland and Sweden, most importantly).
Finally, as part of this new European security architecture, all 38,000+ American troops will be moved out of Germany and placed into Poland and the Baltic States.
That is where the threat now lies. Germany is not at risk of a Russian invasion; Poland and the Baltic States are, DeSantis should say.
America First.
Trump’s Appeasement. But while Biden deserves criticism for appeasing Germany and France, Trump deserves contempt for seeking to appease Putin.
The Russian dictator has consistently sought to sabotage American interests internationally, while undermining the rules-based liberal order that has helped to bring peace and prosperity to the United States and its allies.
Yet by forcing Ukraine to negotiate with Putin, and by demanding an immediate end to the war, Trump would effect a definitive Ukrainian defeat.
This would embolden Putin, strengthen his dictatorial hold over Russia, and invite new European wars in the future. And that, DeSantis should say, is a recipe for disaster.
NATO ‘Unity’. The United States of America will not be beholden to NATO nor to the chimera of NATO “unity.” Unity is a means to an end; it is not an end in itself.
The American national interest lies in preserving peace and stability in Europe. It does not lie in NATO “unity.” If the latter prevents the former, then the latter must go.
No alliance lasts forever. If NATO no longer serves its founding purpose, then the United States should withdraw from NATO and develop a new security architecture that does, DeSantis should say.
The truth is: the interests of the East Europeans and Northeast Europeans differ markedly from the interests of the French and the Germans. The former are directly threatened by Russia in a way that the latter simply are not.
Defense Spending. That’s why defense spending as a percentage of GDP is significantly higher in Poland and the Baltic States than it is in France and Germany.
Poland, for instance, now spends 2.5 percent of its GDP on defense and aims to increase that to four percent this year. Germany, by contrast, has under-funded defense for decades—and, even now, after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, has failed to reach the minimum NATO target of two percent of GDP on defense.
Sorry, but if leading NATO countries like Germany and France refuse to abide by their pledge to spend two percent of GDP on defense, then the much-vaunted NATO “unity” is meaningless and ineffectual. And if NATO will not commit to a clear and decisive Ukrainian win and Russian defeat, then what good is NATO?
For these reasons, the United States needs to play hardball with Germany and France. DeSantis should pledge to end the Biden administration’s appeasement of these two countries and to develop a new 21st Century security alliance with Eastern Europe and the Nordic countries.
America First.
Politics. This is good public policy and good domestic politics. Appeasement of Germany and France in the name of NATO “unity” is leading to disaster in Ukraine; and, domestically, the American people simply will not support another long, drawn-out and inconclusive “forever war.”
The American way of war is to win quickly and decisively. And so, we must seek out allies and alliances that serve that end, in Ukraine and elsewhere.
In this way, DeSantis can distinguish himself from both Biden and Trump, while rejecting their policies of appeasement. Therein lies victory—and a victory with important, much-needed, and consequential public policy ramifications.
America First.
Feature photo credit: (L) Florida governor and 2024 GOP presidential front-runner Ron DeSantis. (R) Disgraced and twice-impeached President Donald Trump. Courtesy of Business Insider.
