By needlessly withholding from Ukraine crucial and much-needed weapon systems, Biden is prolonging the war and perpetuating the suffering of innocent Ukrainian civilians targeted by the Russian war machine.
President Biden is getting unwarranted credit for navigating between two dangerous and alternate policy options in Ukraine: diplomatic appeasement or military escalation, betray Ukraine or risk a wider-scale war with Russia, accommodate Putin or give in to Zelensky.
“The Biden administration has tried to strike a balance between strong military support for Ukraine and avoiding anything that might trigger a direct Russian-American conflict,” reports Washington Post foreign policy columnist David Ignatius.
But this is attempt to strike a balance is utterly misguided because there is no reason to think that more robust U.S. military aid would somehow “provoke Putin” into a suicidal attack on the United States or NATO.
In the meantime, the absence of critical weapon systems in the hands of the Ukrainians serves only to prolong the war and the suffering.
Nuclear Weapons. In truth, it is Vladimir Putin and Russia that have every reason to fear a wider-scale war with the West, given that they are vastly outmatched, militarily and economically, by the United States and NATO.
And Russian nuclear weapons do not change or alter this overwhelming, one-sided imbalance.
Nuclear weapons obviously can inflict horrific civilian and collateral damage, but they are not a military game-changer in Ukraine; far from it. And, diplomatically, Putin’s use of nukes would be the ultimate act of self-sabotage.
“He would lose his Chinese patrons; he would terrify his own population; and he would plunge his country into economic isolation of cryogenic ferocity,” explains former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
For these reasons, the risk of nuclear war, or “World War III,” has been vastly exaggerated by the president and his media cheerleaders to make Biden administration policy choices seem better and wiser than they actually are.
As Johnson points out: a nuclear war “isn’t going to happen. We should stop talking about it,” because it serves only to promote Russian fear-mongering.
Russia’s “constant, repetitive nuclear signaling, which long predates the current war,” writes Anne Applebaum, “has a purpose: to make NATO countries afraid to defend Poland, afraid to defend Ukraine, and afraid to provoke or anger Russia in any way at all.”
“The off-and-on talk coming out of Moscow about using nuclear weapons is largely just that—talk,” add Eric S. Edelman and David J. Kramer. “It is consistent with long-standing Russian ideas of ‘reflexive control’ and is meant to deter the West from providing further assistance to Ukraine.”
America Deterred. Unfortunately, loose Russian talk about “nuclear war” has succeeded in deterring the Biden administration from providing Ukraine with more advanced weapon systems that would hasten the end of the war and relieve the suffering of innocent Ukrainian civilians.
The United States, for instance, refuses to provide Ukraine with ATACMS, the Army Tactical Missile System, that would allow Ukraine to strike much deeper into Russian tactical formations, but at a safer standoff distance.
“The Ukrainians need longer-range weapons,” notes Max Boot. The High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) that they now have has a range of about 45 miles versus 190 miles for ATACMS.
“Why no airplanes? Why no advanced tanks?” asks Applebaum. “Because the White House, the German government, and other governments are afraid that one of these weapons would cross an invisible red line and inspire a nuclear retaliation by Russia.”
Misplaced Western fear, she adds, “also shapes tactics.
Why don’t the Ukrainians more often target the military bases or infrastructure on Russian territory that are being used to attack them? Because Ukraine’s Western partners have asked its leaders not to do so, for fear, again, of escalation.
But again, this fear is misplaced given the correlation of forces between Russia and NATO.
What the president should fear is that if the war drags on because of his reticence to fully arm Ukraine, popular support in the West will dissipate and more innocent Ukrainians will be killed as a result.
“I’ve just spent a fascinating few days in Ukraine,” tweets Luke Coffey.
The Ukrainians will win. How long this victory takes will be decided by USA. The sooner we give Ukraine long-range fires, more 155mm rounds, main battle tanks and F-16s, the faster the war will be over.
The bottom line: President Biden deserves credit for supporting Ukraine militarily, but not for withholding crucial weapon systems because he fears “provoking Putin” and starting “World War III.”
These fears never made any sense and they are needlessly prolonging the war and the suffering of innocent Ukrainians. The sooner Ukraine wins the war by reclaiming all of its lost territory, including Crimea, the better off all nations will be.
President Biden can ensure that this happens by fully arming Ukraine. Now.
Feature photo credit: Presidents Biden and Zelensky, courtesy of Maldives News Network.
