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Posts tagged as “Donald Trump”

Trump Lost Arizona—and the Presidency—in 2020 When, in 2015, He Gratuitously Attacked John McCain

Trump won Arizona in 2016, but lost the state in 2020, and it looks like this loss has cost him the presidency. Yet, Arizona was eminently winnable for Trump—if only he hadn’t made an enemy of John McCain.

As I write (at 1:30 p.m. EST, the day after the election), there are six states—Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina—that are in neither the Trump nor Biden column; and so, we still do not know who will be president Jan. 20, 2021.

However, barring a major counting error or other surprise, we know that Trump has lost one important state—Arizona, with 11 electoral votes—that he won in 2016. And Trump’s loss of Arizona could well be the reason Trump is denied a second term.

Electoral Math. Indeed, Trump could win Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) while losing Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), and Nevada (6), and still win reelection—but only if he retains Arizona.

Otherwise, Trump falls an excruciating three electoral votes short of the requisite 270 needed to win.

This interactive map from 270towin.com spells it all out:

Arizona matters because I believe Trump will win Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Noth Carolina while losing Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. Which means that, because he lost Arizona, Trump has lost the presidency.

Yet, Arizona was completely winnable. Although it has become more competitive in recent years, the state has voted Democrat for president only one time since 1948, and that was in 1996, when Bill Clinton was cruising to reelection against a lackluster Republican opponent (Sen. Majority leader Bob Dole, R-Kansas) just as the Internet-fueled economic boom was heating up.

And why did Trump lose Arizona? In large part because he stupidly made an enemy of the late John McCain. 

Political Feud. Enmity between the two men dates back to 2015, when Trump said that McCain is “not a war hero… because he was captured” by the North Vietnamese during a bombing mission over Hanoi.

This was a stupid and wrong-headed attack. McCain, after all, spent five-and-a-half heroic years as a prisoner of war in the “Hanoi Hilton,” where he was tortured and often placed in solitary confinement.

All Americans owe McCain a debt of gratitude for his courageous wartime service on behalf of our nation. Trump should have said as much and moved on.

Instead, he lashed out at McCain. As a result, McCann’s wife, Cindy McCain, agreed to be featured in Biden campaign commercials that figured prominently in Arizona.

https://twitter.com/marklevinshow/status/1323843582369894400?s=20
https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1323844269124313088
https://twitter.com/MSNBC/status/1323850146069860353?s=20

Political Lessons. Trump’s loss of Arizona and its 11 critical electoral votes reminds us that in politics, as in sports, the team that makes the fewest mistakes—even if less talented—typically wins. And the team that is more focused and self-disciplined typically makes the fewest mistakes.

Trump, unfortunately, is the antithesis of focused and self-disciplined. Consequently, he made a major mental error by gratuitously going after McCain. That cost Trump Arizona, and, it looks like, a second term.

Feature photo creditCNN.

Biden Clearly Beats Trump Even as Trump Scores Some Points

Trump needed to hit Biden on the economy and taxes. Instead, he obsessed over Hunter Biden, law and order.

Substantively and politically, Joe Biden won the first presidential debate.

Donald Trump did score some points; however, he missed many opportunities to hit Biden, especially on the economy. And, because Biden is the clear front runner, Trump’s failure to knock him off his perch means that Biden is one step closer to becoming President of these United States.

To be sure, Trump threw a lot of punches, but most of his punches failed to connect; and he too often failed to throw punches when it mattered most.

Taxes. For example, Trump said next to nothing about Biden’s $4-trillion tax plan, which threatens to sink the stock market and throw the economy into a prolonged depression.

Debate moderator Chris Wallace, in fact, asked the sharp question about Biden’s tax plan that Trump himself should have asked, but did not.

Of course, Trump partisans will plausibly spin this debate as a win for their candidate because Trump did hit Biden hard on multiple occasions.

Trump, for instance, asked Biden to name one police organization or law enforcement agency that had endorsed him for president. Biden literally had no answer.

However, the truth is that, in the aggregate, Trump did little to convince independents and undecided voters that they should vote for him.

Biden, meanwhile, seemed sharper than usual and suffered no real senior moment. And Trump may well have turned off many voters with his childish petulance, bullying, and constant interruptions in violation of the ground rules of the debate.

I suppose it’s possible that Trump may have inspired more voters already predisposed to vote for him to go to the polls on his behalf, but that, to me, seems a long shot.

The more likely outcome, I think, is that independents and undecided voters watch this debate say, “Joe’s OK. I can live with him.”

We’ll see.

Feature photo credit: New York Post.

For the Most Part, the 2020 Election Is Not About Trump or Biden

Is a presidential election a personality contest between two men—or a clash of two political tribes with divergent views on public policy? Are you voting for someone you like—or for hundreds of people you may never see, known or hear from, but who may dramatically affect your future?

To a disconcerting extent, presidential elections are popularity contests. Voters make an intensely personal decision. They eschew ideology and public policy to vote for the man (or woman) they like best and believe is best prepared to lead the nation in the next four years.

I say disconcerting because while the man or woman at the top obviously matters, and while their leadership abilities (or lack thereof) definitely matter, he (or she) is just one person. And our government is far too big, unwieldy, and complex to be run or administered by just one man.

The reality is that a vote for president is a vote for hundreds of people and scores of policies that, to a surprising degree, operate independently of the president, or with his simple approval or assent.

Tax Reform, for instance, had Trump’s imprimatur, but was crafted by Congressional Republicans well before Trump even came on the political scene.

Thus when you voted for Trump, you were voting for scores of people—in Congress, the Trump administration, in think tanks, lobby groups, and the federal bureaucracy—who gave substantive meaning to Trump’s pledge of tax reform and who made tax reform a reality.

Trade. Likewise on trade. Trump promised to “get tough” with China by ending unfair and discriminatory Chinese trade practices. But it wasn’t Trump who formulated these specific public policies and who actually negotiated with China’s communist government.

Instead, it was Robert Lighthizer, Steve Mnuchin, Peter Navarro and other public policy experts who spearheaded this effort and negotiated the deal.

Political Parties. The point is not that Trump doesn’t matter. The point is that he matters a lot less than you might realize if you understand how our government works and how public policy is formulated and implemented. Yet, the media (and most voters, frankly) are fixated on Trump and his childish and obnoxious behavior.

I get it. Trump is the president, after all.

Still, part of being an informed and educated adult is recognizing that we’re not in high school anymore, and we’re not voting for the prom king or queen. The presidential election should not be a popularity contest; it should be a contest of ideas. 

The reality is that any president, Democrat or Republican, will inevitably reflect the political tribe from which he comes and with which he affiliates. This means that voters must look beyond the man and the personality to the political party, its thought leaders and ideological agenda.

The Supreme Court. Consider, for instance, Supreme Court appointments, federal judgeships and the judiciary. Here, Trump has taken his cues from Sen. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) and the Federalist Society.

In fact, if you want to understand Trump’s judicial appointments, you’re much better off listening to McConnell and the Federalist Society than you are listening to Trump. The president, after all, is shallow and incoherent; McConnell and the Federalist Society are thoughtful and coherent.

Biden is more substantively engaged than Trump, but no less a reflection of the party and movement that guide and direct him. In fact, given his advanced age and obviously waning physical and mental abilities, Biden is arguably more of a political puppet than Trump.

Radical Democratic Agenda. Moreover, the energy and intellectual ferment in the Democratic Party today is clearly on the extreme left, as the party has embraced radical plans to:

  • restructure the judiciary;
  • end the use of fossil fuels, including a ban on fracking;
  • decriminalize illegal immigration;
  • abolish the Electoral College;
  • make Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia bona fide states, each with two U.S. Senators; and
  • inexorably extend the government’s takeover of the healthcare system through “Medicare for All.”

Biden may or may not agree with all of these radical plans. (We don’t know for sure because Biden has been lying low, hiding in his basement, saying very little of substance, and campaigning as little as possible.) But whether he agrees or not with his party’s extreme left agenda is largely irrelevant.

Biden is a good and loyal Democrat who will sign whatever bills House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-California) and Charles Schumer (D-New York) send his way—just as Trump has been a good and loyal Republican who has signed whatever bills McConnell and then-House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin) sent his way when the Republicans controlled Congress.

The bottom line: there is a lot more on the ballot this fall than simply two opposing candidates.

There are two opposing political parties, two divergent political philosophies, and two teams of candidates vying for control of the Senate and the House. And there are scores of policy analysts and public policy administrators who work for these two opposing teams or political tribes.

Trump and Biden may be the faces that you see, but there are a lot more faces—and arguably more important faces—behind the scenes working to shape America’s future; and, depending on who wins the election, they may get their chance. 

Understand this and please vote accordingly. Policy, not personality, is what matters most.

Feature photo credit: The Shtick.

Why Deploying the Active-Duty Military to America’s Cities Is a Reasonable Idea

The critics—including former Defense Secretary James Mattis—have it precisely backward: Deploying the U.S. military for domestic security missions is all about protecting our Constitutional rights and liberties.

There has been a lot of elite Sturm und Drang over President Trump’s announcement last week that he would deploy the active-duty military forces to restore “law and order” in American cities torn asunder by violent rioting and looting.

Eighty-nine former defense officials, for instance, have published a piece in the Washington Post saying they “are alarmed at how the president is betraying [his] oath [of office] by threatening to order members of the U.S. military to violate the rights of their fellow Americans.”

“President Trump has given governors a stark choice,” they insist: “either end the protests that continue to demand equal justice under our laws, or expect that he will send active-duty military units into their states.”

Of course, Trump does not express himself well. He is a poor communicator who often uses awkward terminology and cringe-inducing rhetoric.

But the idea that he wishes to employ the military to violate the Constitutional rights of peaceably assembling, law-abiding Americans is ludicrous. You have to be a blinkered anti-Trump zealot to believe that the president is somehow conspiring to use the military to squelch dissent.

There is absolutely no evidence for this fervid, far-fetched proposition. It reflects the lurid imaginations of anti-Trump partisans, not objective, empirical reality.

Averting Violence. The truth, in fact, is quite the opposite: the rationale for deploying active-duty military forces is precisely to protect the Constitutional rights of peaceably assembling Americans from what Sen. Tom Cotton has righty called “nihilist criminals and cadres of left-wing radicals like Antifa.”

These criminals and radicals, Cotton explains, have marred the protests with an “orgy of violence in the spirit of radical chic.”

This orgy of violence seems to have abated somewhat in the past couple of days; however, rioting and looting is still a real and omnipresent problem. Indeed, as the New York Post reports:

“Violence has been used multiple times during what could have been and what should have been peaceful protests,” [NYPD Commissioner Dermot] Shea said at a live-streamed press conference Thursday evening

[…]

There have been 292 members of the force who suffered injuries as some of the demonstrations have seen violent clashes, cops said.

As of June 3, according to the Forbes, at least 12 people have been killed and hundreds of others injured in the protests, including a black federal police officer in Oakland, California; a retired black police captain in St. Louis; and a former Indiana University football player and local business owner who is also black.

“Four police officers were shot in downtown St. Louis early Tuesday, [June 2, 2020], as a day of peaceful protests turned into a violent and destructive night in the city,” reports the St. Louis Post Dispatch.

In Las Vegas, reports the Daily Beast

an officer responding to a looting incident was reportedly shot in the head early Tuesday, [June 2, 2020], after exchanging gunfire with an angry mob, according to several Nevada news sources.

County Sheriff Joe Lombardo told the Las Vegas Review Journal that the officer survived. “He is in extremely critical condition on life support,” Lombardo said “This is a sad night for our LVMPD family and a tragic night for our community.”

Mad Dog Mattis. Yet, in the face of these facts—this incontrovertible empirical evidence—the former Secretary of Defense, James Mattis, declared:

We must not be distracted by a small number of lawbreakers. The protests are defined by tens of thousands of people of conscience who are insisting that we live up to our values—our values as people and our values as a nation.

With all due respect to Secretary Mattis, this is ludicrous and nonsensical. Of course we have to be “distracted” or concerned about the reportedly small number of lawbreakers wreaking havoc in our nation’s cities.

Why? Precisely because they threaten the safety and well-being of the “thousands of people of conscience” Mattis rightly says we need to protect.

Moreover, as Pat Buchanan observes

In Mattis’ statement, one finds not a word of sympathy or support for the police bearing the brunt of mob brutality for defending the communities they serve, while defending the constitutional right of the protesters to curse them as racist and rogue cops.

Trump Derangement Syndrome. I understand why Mattis doesn’t like Trump. His disdain for the president he once served is completely legitimate and understandable.

But Mattis’ failure to understand that violent thugs who threaten to kill the innocent need to be identified and stopped—and by deadly force if necessary—is wrong, inexcusable and unconscionable. Just because Trump proposes something doesn’t make it wrong, dangerous, and unconstitutional.

Too many people—including Mattis and the aforementioned 89 former defense officials—have allowed their disdain for Trump to cloud their judgment and analysis.

In truth, as Ross Douthat has explained, while Trump may well have authoritarian instincts,

real political authority, the power to rule and not just to survive, is something that Donald Trump conspicuously does not seem to want.

Executive Protection. Trump’s critics can and do point to one instance where it can be argued Trump may have tried to infringe upon the Constitutional rights of the protesters.

But that instance—outside of the White House, June 1, as Trump and his team walked to the historic St. John’s Episcopal Church, which had been attacked and burned the night before—is the exception that proves the rule.

Trump’s decision to walk to the church apparently was not well communicated to the Secret Service, U.S. Park Service, and other federal law enforcement agencies. These agencies had to act quickly, therefore, to ensure the president’s safety. And ensuring the president’s safety, remember, is their job.

As the Washington Examiner’s Tim Carney points out:

If Trump knew he was going to do this [walk from the White House to the church], he could have had the Secret Service set up the barricade further out before the evening protests got crowded. Then, there would have been no shoving or smoke grenades needed.

Instead, as WUSA 9 reports, “pepper balls and smoke canisters, which irritate the eyes and throat and cause coughing, [were used] to disperse the protesters.”

This is unfortunate. But given the circumstances—the need to ensure the president’s safety at a time when violent riots and looting were taking place nationwide, and police and innocent bystanders were being killed as a result—these actions are understandable and hardly constitute a gratuitous assault on First Amendment rights.

Indeed, the incident resulted from a lack of planning and coordination, and not because of any Machiavellian plot to betray the Constitution.

Historical Precedent. In truth, as even the 89 aforementioned defense officials acknowledge: “several past presidents have called on our armed services to provide additional aid to law enforcement in times of national crisis—among them Ulysses S. Grant, Dwight D. Eisenhower, John F. Kennedy, and Lyndon B. Johnson.”

Eisenhower, Cotton notes, federalized the the Arkansas National Guard and called in the 101st Airborne Division to protect the civil rights of black school children during a time of integration.

Were the active-duty military to be deployed domestically to American cities torn asunder by violent rioting and looting, they would, likewise, be protecting basic civil rights—namely, the Constitutionally protected right to peaceably assemble without fear of bodily harm, injury or death.

That is a wholly legitimate use of the Armed Forces of the United States.

It won’t happen. Trump already has ordered the National Guard to leave Washington, D.C.; the states and mayors don’t want active-duty military units; and the protests seem to have turned more peaceful and less violent in recent days.

Plus: there may well be prudential and political arguments against using active-duty military units to restore peace, safety and the rule of law to America’s cities. However, the notion that doing so is an unprecedented attack on Constitutional liberties is simply absurd and completely untrue.

Active-Duty Military. Some critics, such as Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Florida), complain that the active-duty military is untrained and unprepared for law enforcement work; but this, too, is untrue. 

In fact, we have military police units that are specifically trained to perform law enforcement functions, including riot and crowd control. The idea that U.S military personnel are trained only to shoot and kill is not something that anyone familiar with the U.S. military would ever say or suggest.

It’s certainly not something that anyone familiar with the U.S. military mission in Kosovo (1990’s), Iraq or Afghanistan (2000’s) would every say or suggest, since these missions involved peacekeeping, stability and law enforcement operations to a very considerable extent.

The bottom line: use of the U.S. military to safeguard important Constitutional rights is not some lunatic-fringe idea that poses an inherent threat to American democracy.

To the contrary: there is ample historical precedent for this idea, and it can be wise public policy. The U.S. military is trained, ready and prepared for such a mission regardless of who is president.

Donald Trump has nothing to do with it.

Feature photo creditPolice Chief magazine.

Why Do Some People Embrace Mask Wearing to Stop the Coronavirus?

Hint: it has nothing to do with science and reason and everything to do with politics and feelings.

I noted here at ResCon1 that there is no compelling scientific evidence that wearing a mask stops the spread of the coronavirus.

And in fact, masks can be positively counterproductive because they give people a false sense of security, “thereby leading them to take fewer precautionary measures that actually do help stop or prevent the virus’s spread.”

Yet, masks are all the rage, with some states, like Virginia, now requiring that masks be worn in all public places, including restaurants and retail stores. Why is this?

Again, it has nothing to do with science because the science is clear: As Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of the World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) emergencies program explained at a media briefing in March:

There is no specific evidence to suggest that the wearing of masks by the mass population has any potential benefit. In fact, there’s some evidence to suggest the opposite in the misuse of wearing a mask properly or fitting it properly.

According to the WHO today, “If you are healthy, you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with COVID-19.”

Association. Still, some people have argued that because masks are commonplace in certain countries or jurisdictions that have done a relatively good job of containing the spread of the coronavirus, masks must, therefore, be effective. But this is silly. Association, obviously, is not causation.

In these same places where masks are commonplace and the coronavirus is relatively contained, people may eat healthy and hearty breakfasts and refrain from drinking alcoholic beverages. Does this mean that healthy and hearty breakfasts and the absence of alcoholic beverages stop the spread of the coronavirus and thus should be mandatory?

In truth, there are too many other potential explanatory factors at work to explain why some countries and regions have been better able to avert or avoid the coronavirus.

Mask wearing populations may be more fastidious and disciplined about social distancing, which is effective at stopping the spread of the coronavirus. Or they may suffer fewer medical complications and co-morbidities. Maybe they’re a younger demographic.

This matters because the victims of COVID-19 are overwhelmingly the elderly and those with with underlying medical ailments and chronic diseases.

Feelings. But despite the utter lack of scientific and empirical evidence to support mask wearing, masks have a cult-like following, and for several reasons, I think.

First, there is the understandable belief that they might do some good and, therefore, are worth the annoyance and imposition.

A member of my own family expressed this sentiment well. “If stuck in a room for 12 hours with a person who has COVID-19,” he writes, “wouldn’t you feel better if that person had a mask on?”

That’s a fair and legitimate question, and I suppose the answer is: Yes, I would. But our feelings can be deceptive. They can give rise to a false sense of hope.

That’s why public policy should not be based on feelings. Public policy should be based on facts, logic and empirical evidence.

Masks are like chicken soup. They may make us feel better; but neither a mask nor chicken soup is effective at stopping or combating a virus.

If your sore throat feels better by eating chicken soup, then by all means do so. But please don’t think that chicken soup will heal your sore throat or free you of a viral infection, because it won’t. 

By the same token, if wearing a mask makes you feel better or safer—or if it gives you the sense that you’re doing something helpful in this pandemic—then by all means, wear a mask. But please don’t think that your mask will do anything to stop the spread of the coronavirus, because it won’t.

Symbolism. Another reason public health officials push masks is because they see them as a powerful symbol to remind people that we are still in a pandemic and thus need to be extra careful.

In this view, it really doesn’t matter whether the mask actually stops the spread of the coronavirus. What matters is that it gives people pause, causes them to think, and induces them to act appropriately. 

This is the position of Dr. Anthony Fauci, who heads up the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease. Back in March, Fauci admitted that people should not be wearing a mask.

“There’s no reason to be walking around with a mask,” Fauci told 60 Minutes.

When you’re in the middle of an outbreak, wearing a mask might make people feel a little bit better, and might even block a droplet. But it’s not providing the perfect protection that people think it is.

And often, there are unintended consequences. People keep fiddling with the mask, and they keep touching their face. 

Fauci has since changed his position and says he now thinks people should wear a mask. However, his reason or rationale for changing his position is telling. It’s not that the science behind wearing a mask has changed, because it hasn’t.

Instead, Fauci says, the masks are a powerful “symbol” to prod people to do the kinds of things that they should be doing—mainly social distancing—that will protect people and the public health.

Politics. Some people, moreover, are smitten with masks because they view masks as public rebuke to President Trump, who has declined to wear a mask.

Worse yet, in the view of these anti-Trump political partisans, the president even castigated one reporter for trying to be “politically correct” when that reporter refused to remove his mask while asking Trump a question in the White House rose garden.

In this view, wearing a mask is a way to thumb your nose at Trump.

This, in fact, is why Biden has conspicuously taken to wearing a mask: It’s a way for him to identify with and bond with his left-wing supporters. And forcing all Americans to wear a mask is a way to isolate Trump and have the citizenry en mass thumb them their collective noses at him.

“What could be more delicious!” think Biden’s “progressive” partisans.

A similar and sometimes overlapping group of anti-Trump “progressives,” meanwhile, supports mandatory mask wearing as a means of keeping the citizenry fearful and the country in lockdown.

These “progressives” understand that when Americans are fearful and America is in crisis, it is much easier to impose sweeping statist measures that will “fundamentally transform” America along socialist and redistributionist lines.

Indeed, for the left, the mask is a convenient political tool that will help them to impose their statist agenda on an otherwise resistant citizenry.

The bottom line: there are several reasons, ranging from the benign to the malevolent, that people support mandatory mask wearing despite the lack of scientific evidence that masks stop the spread of the coronavirus.

But regardless of the reason or rationale, the groupthink that now dominates our politics, our media, and our culture—to wit: that wearing a mask is a self-evident good that will protect us and the public health—is counterproductive and untrue.

And no matter what you think, we all should agree: truth, science and reason should trump feelings, sentiment and wishful thinking.

Feature photo creditNew York Post.