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Posts tagged as “COVID”

Ex-Navy Secretary Modly is Wrong About the Media and Wrong About the Military’s Use of the Media

The Acting Secretary of the Navy, Thomas B. Modly, resigned today after public outrage ensued from remarks he gave on the USS Theodore Roosevelt in which he called the ship’s former commanding officer, Brett Crozier, “too naïve or too stupid” to be in charge of an aircraft carrier.

As we reported here at ResCon1 Saturday, Modly relieved Crozier of his command because of a letter Crozier had written detailing the dire situation on the Roosevelt and pleading with the Navy to remove his men from the ship.

Sailors there had become infected with the coronavirus, which, given the close quarters on the ship, risked rapidly spreading throughout the ranks. Crozier’s letter was not classified; more than 20 people were on the receipt line; and it found its way into the San Francisco Chronicle.

There’s a lot to be said about this entire affair. For now, let me make just two observations:

First, I have no doubt that Modly spoke from the heart Monday when he explained to the crew of the USS Theodore Roosevelt why he had relieved their beloved skipper, Captain Brett Crozier, of his command.

Moldy’s remarks are salty, but sincere and genuine; and they should not be discounted simply because he spoke in blunt and earthy terms.

Indeed, calling Crozier “stupid,” or “naïve,” and guilty of “betrayal,” as Modly did, is hardly grounds for outrage if, in fact, Crozier did something that warrants such a description. 

Second, while Moldy’s language hardly warrants condemnation, the sum and substance of his criticism of Crozier is wrong and needs to be refuted.

Most informed observers seem to disagree with me and say the exact opposite: They criticize Modly for his sharp and abrasive attacks on Crozier, and for preempting the Navy’s uniformed leadership, which already had pledged to investigate the matter.

However, they accept Modly’s essential argument, which is that what Crozier did was fundamentally wrong and a bad mistake at best.

I could not disagree more. I think that what Crozier did by writing and releasing his letter was wise, prescient, and in accordance with the finest traditions of the U.S. military.

Let me explain why.

Modly’s most serious charge is that Crozier’s letter emboldened our enemies and compromised the war fighting capabilities of the Roosevelt. As Modly put it, Crozier’s letter 

raised concerns about the operational capabilities and operational security of the ship that could have emboldened our adversaries to seek advantage.

This is, obviously, a very legitimate concern, but one we should reject, and for three reasons:

First, it is no secret that U.S. military personnel serving on ships that routinely dock in foreign ports are at heightened risk of contracting the coronavirus, given their intimate living quarters. So questions were bound to be raised and asked about this.

And in fact, questions were raised about this in the media more than a month ago, in late February and early March 2020.

We live, moreover, in a free and democratic country, where the families of U.S. military personnel rightly demand to know about the health and safety of their deployed service men and women—volunteers all.

The idea that you can keep this information secret in the 21st Century—an age in which everyone has worldwide, instantaneous communication at their fingertips—is ludicrous and unworkable.

Our enemies know that the coronavirus is affecting our military personnel, just as they know it is affecting them and everyone else. A pandemic, after all, is, by definition, an international problem. There are no secrets here to hide or conceal.

Second, our enemies and adversaries—including China, Russia, Iran, al-Qaeda, and ISIS—all have their hands full right now with the coronavirus.

Thus they are in no way ready or prepared to try and exploit this international public health crisis by attacking the awesome power and capability of the United States Navy and Marine Corps.

Thirdas Capt. Crozier explained throughout his letter, in very clear and explicit detail, the ship’s war-fighting mission must and always does take precedence over the health and safety of its sailors. 

“If required,” he wrote

the USS THEODORE ROOSEVELT would embark all assigned Sailors, set sail, and be ready to fight and beat any adversary that dares challenge the U.S. or our allies. The virus would certainly have an impact, but in combat we are willing to take certain risks that are not acceptable in peacetime.

However, we are not at war, and therefore cannot allow a single Sailor to perish as a result of this pandemic unnecessarily. Decisive action is required now in order to comply with the CDC and NAVADMIN 083/20 guidance and prevent traffic outcomes…

“During wartime,” he explained, we

maximize war fighting readiness and capacity as quickly as possible. No timeline necessary. We go to war with the forces we have and fight sick. We never achieve a COVID-free TR. There will be losses to the virus.

In fact, as Crozier pointed out, decisive action was required precisely stop the virus from infecting the entire crew and thereby crippling the Roosevelt’s war-fighting capability. But since “war is not imminent, we recommend pursuing the peacetime end state [emphasis added].

Thus, far from being emboldened to attack because of Crozier’s letter, our enemies instead are deterred: because they know that this commanding officer states explicitly that the ship’s warfighting mission is paramount and will always be pursued regardless of the health of his crew.

In other words, if attacked or called upon, we will fight and go to war come hell or high coronavirus. 

The bigger issue here, though, is whether openness and transparency about the state of our military is an operational weakness or strength. I believe that it is a strength because it allows us to quickly identify problems and correct deficiencies.

Modly doesn’t disagree. He just thinks that the review process has to be done quietly and discreetly behind a veil of secrecy. But history proves this just isn’t the case, and that the opposite is true. Without public exposure and debate, bureaucracies grow hidebound and resistant to change.

We saw this problem in an extreme form in the former Soviet Union, which, for 70 years habitually lied to itself to maintain its power structure, despite obvious and manifest failures that immiserated the country for decades.

The United States, thankfully, has not suffered a similar fate; but that is not because our bureaucracy is necessarily any better. Instead, it is because we live in a free and open country, in which bureaucratic decisions—including bureaucratic-military decisions—are routinely subject to scrutiny, criticism and debate.

The media are an integral part of this self-correction and improvement process.

Washington Post reporter Greg Jaffee notes, for instance, that, in 2007, at the height of the Iraq War, the Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, thanked USA Today for stories that exposed problems with armored vehicles in Iraq. Gates appreciated USA Today’s reporting because it prodded the Pentagon to make more timely vehicular improvements, which saved American lives.

“Gates, likewise, praised [Washington Post reporters] Dana Priest and Anne Hull for their series exposing problems at Walter Reed,” notes New York Times reporter Peter Baker.

“I would say when there is an article critical of us, don’t go into a defensive crouch. Maybe you’ve just been handed a gift to solve a problem [that] you didn’t know existed,” Gates then said.

Sure, in the heat of battle and the fog of war, secrecy may be paramount and justified. Of course. But aside from those rare moments of actual conflict, secrecy is a big mistake and a weak rationalization that bureaucrats like Modly use to hide their failures and conceal their mistakes.

In truth, the United States, and the U.S. military in particular, benefit from being so open and transparent about our issues and challenges. That is not a weakness; it is a comparative advantage—and it is a big reason we retain a decided edge over our enemies.

Yet, incredibly, Modly told sailors and Marines in Guam that “there is no, no situation where you go to the media: because the media has an agenda.”

A Soviet commissar could not have put it any better. But this bureaucratic edict was bad in the original Russian, and it’s no better in English.

In truth, the media have an important role to play. And a military that has nothing to hide, and which understands the necessity and importance of outside input and review, should encourage, not shun, media scrutiny. Bring it on. Now more than ever.

Feature photo credit: Thomas B. Modly via Newport Buzz.

History Will Remember that Captain Crozier, Like Colonel Roosevelt, Did the Right Thing By and For His Men

A commanding officer out on the front lines, far from home, pleads with his superiors in Washington, D.C., to take action. His men are sick and dying and need to be evacuated to a safe harbor immediately. But the brass at headquarters are slow to act. They drag their feet and mull what to do.

Throwing caution—as well as his career—to the wind, the commanding officer fires off a crisply worded memorandum, notable for its clarity and precision, explaining the dire situation, and earnestly requesting that prompt action be taken to save lives that otherwise will be needlessly lost.

The action is belatedly forthcoming. The troops are evacuated and their lives are saved, but the high command is angry and incensed. They have been publicly shamed and humiliated by widespread publication of the CO’s letter. Heads—or at least one head, the commanding officer’s—will roll.

Captain Crozier. Readers will recognize that this is an apt description (minus the lives lost) of what has just transpired on the USS Theodore Roosevelt.

Sailors and Marines there have become infected with the coronavirus, prompting the ship’s commanding officer, Captain Brett Crozier, to write a letter detailing their dire situation and pleading with the Navy to remove his men from the ship.

“We are not at war,” Crozier wrote. “Sailors do not need to die. If we do not act now, we are failing to properly take care of our most trusted asset—our Sailors.”

For writing such heresy and allowing his words to find their way to the public prints—namely the San Francisco Chronicle—Crozier was summarily dismissed and relieved of his command by Acting Navy Secretary Thomas B. Modly.

But as two astute observers—Tweed Roosevelt (a great-grandson of President Theodore Roosevelt) and Ward Carroll—point out, what Crozier did and was fired for has historical antecedents in a similar action taken by then Colonel (Theodore) Roosevelt at the end of the Spanish American War.

Well before he became President of the United States, writes Tweed Roosevelt, and before even

his rise to national politics, Roosevelt commanded the Rough Riders, a volunteer cavalry regiment, in the invasion of Cuba during the Spanish-American War.

The Battle of San Juan Hill had been fought and won, and the war was basically over. However, the soldiers, still deployed in Cuba, faced a far worse enemy: yellow fever and malaria.

As was usual in the days before modern medicine, far more soldiers died of disease than of enemy action. The battlefield commanders, including Roosevelt, wanted to bring the soldiers home.

But the leadership in Washington—in particular Russell Alger, the secretary of war—refused, fearing a political backlash. A standoff ensued.

The career Army officers, who did not want to risk their jobs by being too outspoken, were stymied. Roosevelt, as a short-term volunteer, had less to lose.

So, with the tacit approval of his fellow commanders, he wrote a fiery open letter and released it to the press.

The letter, known as the “round robin,” was printed in virtually every newspaper in the country, creating an uproar demanding that the soldiers be brought home immediately. Alger relented, and the troops were sent to quarantine on the end of Long Island, at Montauk Point.

Though hundreds of men died of disease in Cuba, Roosevelt’s actions probably saved countless more.

He did, however, pay a price. Alger was furious with him. When Roosevelt’s nomination came up for a Medal of Honor, the secretary shot it down (Roosevelt eventually received the medal, posthumously, in 2001).

Of course, Roosevelt came out the winner. Who today remembers Russell Alger?

In this era when so many seem to place expediency over honor, it is heartening that so many others are showing great courage, some even risking their lives.

Theodore Roosevelt, in his time, chose the honorable course. Captain Crozier has done the same.

Certainly, the sailors and Marines whom Crozier led on the USS Roosevelt understand this. They gave their captain a raucous salute as he departed the ship after being summarily dismissed and relieved of his command. 

“That’s how you send out one of the greatest captains you ever had,” someone says in the video—then using an acronym for greatest of all time, adds: “The GOAT, the man for the people.”

https://www.facebook.com/michael.washington.5458/videos/10216506735516262/?t=10

Crozier’s career as a naval officer is, sadly, finished. But, like Roosevelt, he will live on in the hearts and minds of his countrymen as a man of uncompromising integrity and moral courage. And history will not long forget what he did nor why he did it.

Feature photo credit: Medal of Honor Society (Theodore Roosevelt) and Navy photo via Navy Times.

Finding Humor Amid the Doom and Gloom of the Coronavirus

The coronavirus has cast a pall over the country. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has urged Americans to cancel events with 50 or more people, and President Trump has declared the COVID-19 outbreak a national emergency.

The need for extreme social distancing to prevent our hospitals and our healthcare system from being overwhelmed and brought to the breaking point may mean that this emergency extends throughout the summer, Trump warns.

The stock market, meanwhile, has lost nearly a third of its value (32 percent) since Feb. 12. As a point of comparison, “between Oct. 24 and Nov. 13, 1929 [at the start of the Great Depression], stocks fell by 33 percent,” reports Bloomberg’s Joe Nocera.

During such depressing times, it is important to find instances of levity or black humor to help relieve the stress and anxiety that threaten us all. Here are two such instances that we think will bring a smile to your face.

First, you know things have gotten bad when even Islamist terrorist groups are warning their adherents to avoid London, Milan, and Paris because, well, it’s gotten too damn dangerous there!

Second, professional and collegiate athletes have all been canceled. March Madness? Gone! Spring Training? Hasta la vista! Opening Day? Not this year!

Professional basketball and hockey? No dice! The PGA Tour? Forget about it! The Kentucky Derby? Not in Kentucky and not in any of these United States!

Heck, even professional bowling (if that’s your thing) probably has been canceled, given the CDC’s edict—er, I mean, recommendation!—against gatherings of 50 or more people.

Yet, not to worry: ESPN “has you covered” with 24/7 programming. But covered with what, exactly? Not sports, because there are none anymore. Instead, ESPN has you covered with wall-to-wall bloviation!

Now, look: I love Stephen A. Smith as much as the next red-blooded-American sports fan. But as good as he is—and he is very good—there’s only so much of him that you can take in any one day or week.

Ditto Tony Kornheiser and Michael Wilbon. Pardon the Interruption and perish the thought; but what, exactly, are they gonna argue about if there’s nothing happening in the sports world to argue about?

The good old days? The 1969 Mets? The ’85 Bears? Dentures? Their latest hip replacement surgery? I mean: Come on, man!

Feature photo credit: The Patriot Post.

The Stock Market Correction Was Overdue Irrespective of the Coronavirus and Is Nothing to Fear

Market corrections are regular and healthy occurrences, and the rebound to new highs may already be underway.

CNBC reports that U.S. equities markets lost more than $3.18 trillion this week as they suffered their worst weekly sell-off since the 2008 financial crisis. So, should you should divest yourself of all stocks and hide your money under the mattress until the panic subsides?

No, of course not. Stock market corrections occur with some regularity and are to be expected. They actually are healthy and beneficial because they help to check and rein in what Alan Greenspan famously called “irrational exuberance.”

Market corrections don’t mean the market is collapsing; they mean the market is consolidating and correcting equities valuations that got ahead of themselves and were artificially inflated by the bull run. This is a good thing because it sets the stage for further gains based on a more accurate assessment of market and corporate fundamentals.

Historical Context. “There have been 26 market corrections since World War II, with an average decline of 13.7% over an average of four months,” reports CNBC’s Thomas Franck. “Recoveries have taken four months on average,” and the upward trajectory of the market has remained intact.

There is “one big caveat”: if we fall into bear market territory, then “the losses stretch to 20 percent [and] there’s more pain ahead and a longer recovery time,” Franck notes.

But for a bear market to occur, we’d almost certainly have to suffer a recession, which is exceedingly unlikely, given the underlying strength of the U.S. economy and the U.S. consumer.

Right now, the equities markets are overreacting to fears of the coronavirus and how it might adversely affect Chinese economic growth and world economic growth more generally. CNBC’s Fred Imbert reports:

“What we’ve seen the last couple of days is pure liquidation,” said Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist/SunTrust Advisory. “Investors are saying ‘get me out at any cost.’”

“The most important dynamic in the market is uncertainty,” Lerner added. “People are selling first and asking questions later.”

When traders and investors are selling first and asking questions later, that’s a surefire sign of an overreaction and an overshoot to the downside.

Moreover, just before this correction occurred, the major stock indexes—the SPY, QQQ, and DIA, for instance—had all hit 52-week highs. The market had been climbing higher and higher almost without interruption for some time. Thus we were due for a pullback. It was inevitable.

Inevitable Correction. The coronavirus, in fact, may have been the occasion or pretext for traders and investors to do that which they had been angling to do for weeks, but never did because of irrational exuberance and the fear of missing out on even greater highs. As Stephen Auth, CIO of Global Equities for Federated Hermes, told Fox Business:

This correction was overdue. We had a 17% run without a pullback. The last 16 times we’ve had something like that, we’ve had a 10% correction…

The coronavirus is a good excuse for one [a correction]. It is scary. We don’t know, really, how it’s going to play out. But at the end of the day, the global economy will bounce back from this. It’s at worse a short-term hit.

The “fact is,” writes Luke Burgess at Energy and Capital, “last week the Dow was trading 11% over it’s 200-day moving average. So, again, a market correction was inevitable with or without coronavirus.”

And a rebound off of our current lows is just as inevitable, and sooner than you might think.

In the three weeks before Christmas 2018, for instance, “so-called ‘U.S. equity style boxes’ made popular by Morningstar all fell by between 15-19 percent,” writes Rob Isbitts in Forbes. Lower-volatility stocks, meanwhile, suffered declines of 10-20 percent, he adds.

“The impact was so severe across the board, it wiped out all, nearly all, or more than all the gains of the prior year and a half in all nine [major] stock market segments…” Yet, “the stock market rebounded quickly after Christmas [2018], and that rally has stretched into the start of 2019,” Isbitts explains.

In fact, the rally extended throughout 2019 and into 2020 almost without interruption, as Annekan Tappe observed in a Dec.29, 2019, year-end analysis of the equities markets for CNN Business.

US stocks had a fantastic year in 2019, with all three major indexes climbing more than 20 percent. But that performance came at the price of volatility and uncertainty.

Last year ended on a sour note, with the worst December since the Great Recession leading to the first annual stock market losses in three years. This year was a rebound—and then some—but it wasn’t easy.

Trade and the Fed, the two big themes of 2019, pushed and pulled on equities. The Fed won out, and stocks soared. Investors got quite a bit of whiplash along the way.

The whiplash continues; but so, too, do the market’s gains. Stay invested and prepare for the next leg-up: because, as sure as the sun rises, it’s coming—in spite of the coronavirus.

Feature photo credit: Investor Junkie.

The Media and the Politicians Color and Distort the Coronavirus and Stock Market Plunge

Two big and dramatic developments, the coronavirus and stock market plunge, are dominating the news. To understand these events and their true significance, you need to understand the political and journalistic prisms through which these events are being reported and assessed.

First, the media have a professional interest in hyping the threat from the coronavirus and exaggerating the dangers from the stock market plunge. Doing so draws in readership and viewership.

Staid and boring news, after all. doesn’t sell; dramatic and consequential news does. This doesn’t mean the coronavirus and stock market plunge aren’t significant events; they obviously are. But it does mean that they need to be put into perspective and viewed in historical context.

Second, we live in hyper-polarized times, politically, and are in the midst of a fiercely contested presidential election, with one-third of the Senate and all of the House of Representatives up for reelection.

This means that political candidates running and on the ballot have every incentive to seize upon whatever bad news they can to try and score political points against their opponents.

Thus much of the alarmist commentary that we’re hearing about the coronavirus and stock market plunge is attributable to politicians trying to win votes and media outlets trying to draw in readers and viewers.

That many journalists and media outlets are politically partisan and unabashedly anti-Trump further compounds this problem.

So, consider the source of your news and take in information with a skeptical eye. Things probably aren’t as bad as they seem. As Ecclesiastes 1:9 puts it, there is nothing new under the sun and we’ve most likely been here before. Do your own fair-minded reporting and analysis.

We’ll have more to say about the coronavirus and the stock market plunge. For now, it’s important to understand the interests and incentives of those who are reporting on these developments (the media), as well as those who are helping to drive media coverage (the politicians): because as Agent Scully put it in the X-Files: “The truth is out there. But so are lies.”

Feature photo credit: Medium.