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Posts tagged as “2020 Presidential Election”

For the Most Part, the 2020 Election Is Not About Trump or Biden

Is a presidential election a personality contest between two men—or a clash of two political tribes with divergent views on public policy? Are you voting for someone you like—or for hundreds of people you may never see, known or hear from, but who may dramatically affect your future?

To a disconcerting extent, presidential elections are popularity contests. Voters make an intensely personal decision. They eschew ideology and public policy to vote for the man (or woman) they like best and believe is best prepared to lead the nation in the next four years.

I say disconcerting because while the man or woman at the top obviously matters, and while their leadership abilities (or lack thereof) definitely matter, he (or she) is just one person. And our government is far too big, unwieldy, and complex to be run or administered by just one man.

The reality is that a vote for president is a vote for hundreds of people and scores of policies that, to a surprising degree, operate independently of the president, or with his simple approval or assent.

Tax Reform, for instance, had Trump’s imprimatur, but was crafted by Congressional Republicans well before Trump even came on the political scene.

Thus when you voted for Trump, you were voting for scores of people—in Congress, the Trump administration, in think tanks, lobby groups, and the federal bureaucracy—who gave substantive meaning to Trump’s pledge of tax reform and who made tax reform a reality.

Trade. Likewise on trade. Trump promised to “get tough” with China by ending unfair and discriminatory Chinese trade practices. But it wasn’t Trump who formulated these specific public policies and who actually negotiated with China’s communist government.

Instead, it was Robert Lighthizer, Steve Mnuchin, Peter Navarro and other public policy experts who spearheaded this effort and negotiated the deal.

Political Parties. The point is not that Trump doesn’t matter. The point is that he matters a lot less than you might realize if you understand how our government works and how public policy is formulated and implemented. Yet, the media (and most voters, frankly) are fixated on Trump and his childish and obnoxious behavior.

I get it. Trump is the president, after all.

Still, part of being an informed and educated adult is recognizing that we’re not in high school anymore, and we’re not voting for the prom king or queen. The presidential election should not be a popularity contest; it should be a contest of ideas. 

The reality is that any president, Democrat or Republican, will inevitably reflect the political tribe from which he comes and with which he affiliates. This means that voters must look beyond the man and the personality to the political party, its thought leaders and ideological agenda.

The Supreme Court. Consider, for instance, Supreme Court appointments, federal judgeships and the judiciary. Here, Trump has taken his cues from Sen. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) and the Federalist Society.

In fact, if you want to understand Trump’s judicial appointments, you’re much better off listening to McConnell and the Federalist Society than you are listening to Trump. The president, after all, is shallow and incoherent; McConnell and the Federalist Society are thoughtful and coherent.

Biden is more substantively engaged than Trump, but no less a reflection of the party and movement that guide and direct him. In fact, given his advanced age and obviously waning physical and mental abilities, Biden is arguably more of a political puppet than Trump.

Radical Democratic Agenda. Moreover, the energy and intellectual ferment in the Democratic Party today is clearly on the extreme left, as the party has embraced radical plans to:

  • restructure the judiciary;
  • end the use of fossil fuels, including a ban on fracking;
  • decriminalize illegal immigration;
  • abolish the Electoral College;
  • make Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia bona fide states, each with two U.S. Senators; and
  • inexorably extend the government’s takeover of the healthcare system through “Medicare for All.”

Biden may or may not agree with all of these radical plans. (We don’t know for sure because Biden has been lying low, hiding in his basement, saying very little of substance, and campaigning as little as possible.) But whether he agrees or not with his party’s extreme left agenda is largely irrelevant.

Biden is a good and loyal Democrat who will sign whatever bills House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-California) and Charles Schumer (D-New York) send his way—just as Trump has been a good and loyal Republican who has signed whatever bills McConnell and then-House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin) sent his way when the Republicans controlled Congress.

The bottom line: there is a lot more on the ballot this fall than simply two opposing candidates.

There are two opposing political parties, two divergent political philosophies, and two teams of candidates vying for control of the Senate and the House. And there are scores of policy analysts and public policy administrators who work for these two opposing teams or political tribes.

Trump and Biden may be the faces that you see, but there are a lot more faces—and arguably more important faces—behind the scenes working to shape America’s future; and, depending on who wins the election, they may get their chance. 

Understand this and please vote accordingly. Policy, not personality, is what matters most.

Feature photo credit: The Shtick.

Because of His Response to the Coronavirus, Trump’s Prospects for Reelection Are Better Than You Think

The big high-stakes political battle that’s now playing out in the media, and in some early presidential campaign commercials, is this:

Did President Trump act quickly and vigorously enough to confront the growing coronavirus pandemic and thereby save American lives, or was his response belated, tardy, and lacking—and, therefore, responsible for unnecessary and needless American deaths?

Trump’s reelection obviously hinges on how this question is adjudicated in the minds of the voting public.

Here at ResCon1 we have been highly critical of the president’s response to the coronavirus, arguing that his failure to act early and decisively has “endangered American lives and forced the United States to take even more draconian measures than otherwise would have been necessary.”

This is true, but arguably too harsh: because there are other salient considerations that must be weighed:

First, is it fair to fault Trump for his belated and tardy response, given that no one elseincluding the mainstream media and all of the Democratic presidential candidates—sounded the alarm either?

Yes, it is fair: because the president is the president. He’s supposed to be attentive to threats to the safety and well-being of the American people. He’s supposed to know more than the media and more than the rest of us.

U.S. taxpayers, moreover, spend tens of billions of dollars annually on intelligence personnel and intelligence capabilities precisely to give the president and other policymakers early warning of impending threats.

And in fact, as we’ve noted here at ResCon1, parts of the Trump administration were trying to inform the president early on (back in January) about the coronavirus. Yet Trump seriously downplayed the risk of a pandemic—in large part because he was too credulous of the assurances given to him by his “friend,” China’s dictator, Xi Jinping.

On the other hand, Trump administration actions re: the coronavirus are far better than Trump’s statements about the coronavirus. Indeed, while the latter are often contemptible the former are usually laudatory.

The media (ResCon1 included) tend to fixate on Trump’s statements, which are usually impulsive, scattershot, and misguided. But Trump administration actions are usually more focused and on target.

Thus Trump established a presidential task force Jan. 29 to tackle the coronavirus; and, two days later, he declared COVID-19 a public health emergency. On Feb. 23, he requested a $2.5- billion supplemental specifically to combat the virus.

Then of course, there is Trump’s so-called China travel ban, implemented Jan. 31.

The word “ban” is really a misnomer: because many categories of people traveling to and from China are excluded from its strictures. Consequently, as the New York Times reported April 4, nearly 40,000 Americans and authorized travelers have come into the United States from China since the “ban” was enacted.

Still, by limiting and restricting the entry of Chinese nationals, and by advising Americans against traveling to China, Trump was acknowledging that a serious public health problem had originated there, and he was buying us time to prepare for the fight ahead.

‘Racism’ and ‘Xenophobia’. It’s also important to note that while Trump was responding to COVID-19, Democratic politicians, liberal journalists, and the mainstream media were criticizing him for being unduly alarmist and “racist.”

As we noted here at ResCon1, for instance, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer called the travel restrictions “just an excuse [for Trump] to further his ongoing war against immigrants.”

The 2020 Democratic Presidential nominee, Joe Xi, likewise, criticized the president’s “xenophobia” and “fear-mongering,” reports White House National Security Adviser Rober C. O’Brien in the Wall Street Journal. Biden “stressed that ‘diseases have no borders,’” O’Brien writes.

(But if diseases have no borders, then why, according to Pew Research, does 93 percent of the world’s population now live in countries or territories that limit or ban travel in part because of the coronavirus?)

O’Brien catalogues five other “fateful coronavirus decisions” that Trump made. These include:

  • stopping entry of foreign nationals from Europe;
  • initiating a national social distancing campaign to dramatically slow the spread of the virus;
  • pushing for innovative use of therapies (such as remdesivir) to fight the virus;
  • issuing CDC guidelines that recommend the personal use of cloth masks to stop the spread of the virus; and
  • initiating public-private partnerships to dramatically ramp-up production of ventilators and other personal protective equipment needed by patients and healthcare providers.

In short, even though Trump’s rhetoric has been lacking, and even though he was slow to recognize the true depths of the problem, he has, nonetheless, acted forcefully and vigorously to combat the COVID-19 pandemic.

What’s more, it is doubtful that Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, or any other Democratic presidential wannabe would have responded any earlier or more effectively, given what they said (and did not say) when the coronavirus first emerged as a public health concern here in the United States, and given their obsession with “racism,” “bigotry,” and “xenophobia.”

Indeed, this obsession likely would have prevented a Democratic president from acknowledging Chinese culpability early on and then confronting China. 

Ventilators. We also should note that one one crucial matter, the supply of ventilators, Trump has been proven right and his critics monstrously wrong.

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, for instance, complained loudly and often that his state needed 30,000 ventilators; and that Trump and the federal government needed to step up and help.

Otherwise, he gravely warned, ventilators would have to be rationed, and patients who needed ventilators might not get them.

Well, as it turned out, New York did not need anywhere near 30,000 ventilators; and the Trump administration did a genuinely masterful job of managing the supply of ventilators to ensure that no patient nationwide who ever needed a ventilator was ever denied a ventilator.

National Review’s Rich Lowry reports this story in full, and it is well worth reading in its entirety. Suffice it to say: Trump has gotten a lot of bad and undeserving press over the ventilators when, in fact, he should be getting praise and plaudits.

Poor Spokesman. Of course, a big reason Trump doesn’t get the credit he sometimes deserves is because he is such a poor spokesman on his own behalf; yet, he feels compelled to hog the limelight.

Trump would be much better off if he said less and let his very able team—Vice President Pence, Drs. Fauci and Birx, CDC Director Robert Redfield, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin et al.—do more of the talking and explaining.

Also, Trump sometimes seems to be at war with his own administration; and this, too, contributes to an overall sense of policy incoherence and confusion.

If Trump were a more disciplined and organized administrator, he’d get better and more consistent policy results, realize greater media plaudits and recognition, and achieve higher poll ratings.

In short, while it is easy to criticize Trump, it is important to view him and his administration in a broader and more inclusive context, and to consider the plausible alternatives.

For starters, the Trump administration, thankfully, is much more than just Donald Trump. And even Donald Trump is more than just his Twitter feed and bombastic statements.

For these reasons, a fair-minded and holistic assessment must give our president (or at least his administration) higher marks than most think might be warranted.

However, the story of the Trump presidency is still unfolding; it will have many twists and turns; and the American people will decide its fate on election day, Nov. 3, 2020.

Stay tuned.

Feature photo credit: WisPolitics.com.

Bernie Sanders Ends His Presidential Campaign, But His Bad, Statist Policy Ideas Live On

Bernie Sanders officially ended his presidential campaign today. But although Sanders is a 2020 electoral loser, he is nonetheless a political winner: because his extreme, left-wing ideas have come to dominate the political dialogue and debate.

“Medicare for all,” for instance, which is just a nice-sounding name for a “single-payer,” government-controlled healthcare system, has gone mainstream and, according to many polls, now commands majority support.

“Free” college for all also ranks high now in the public’s political consciousness, as does the call to “ban new fracking.” 

“It was not long ago,” Sanders said today “that people considered these ideas radical and fringe. Today they are mainstream ideas.”

Sadly, he’s right. As the Wall Street Journal Editorial Board observes:

For the evidence, see Joe Biden’s agenda.

Mr. Biden promises free community college, plus free four-year university for every family earning under $125,000 a year. He has resisted Medicare for All, but he wants to add a government “public option” to ObamaCare.

Even Barack Obama couldn’t get this through Congress in 2010, despite a Senate supermajority.

Mr. Biden’s proposed tax increases total $3.4 trillion over 10 years, twice what Hillary Clinton suggested in 2016. His climate plan runs to $1.7 trillion over a decade and calls for the construction of a transcontinental high-speed railway.

Don’t forget his pledge at the last debate of “no new fracking.” This is what a middle-of-the-road Democrat looks like in 2020.

Exactly. While there may well be “moderate” Democrats who don’t share Sanders “progressive” ideological zeal, the truth is that they, like Biden, are responsive to, and beholden to, Sanders’ far-left political agenda.

Even Biden admits that

Senator Sanders and his supporters have changed the dialogue in America.

Issues which had been given little attention—or little hope of ever passing—are now at the center of the political debate. Income inequality, universal health care, climate change, free college, relieving students from the crushing debt of student loans.

These are just a few of the issues Bernie and his supporters have given life to. And while Bernie and I may not agree on how we might get there, we agree on the ultimate goal for these issues and many more [emphasis added].

In other words, Biden and other “moderate” Democrats want to empower the government as much as Sanders and the “progressives” do. They just want to do so in a slower and more deliberative fashion.

The Democratic Party’s left-wing lurch, and America’s newfound flirtation with socialism, are frightening and disconcerting. But give the devil his due: At least the Sanders Democrats are brimming with ideas—bad, statist ideas, mind you, but ideas nonetheless.

The Trump Republicans, by contrast, are completely devoid of ideas.

Indeed, since taking over the GOP, the Trump Republicans have become a cult of personality devoted to “The Donald,” and policy ideas have taken a back seat.

There is, consequently, no free-market policy agenda that the GOP is pushing to replace Obamacare, reform and save entitlements, and promote more robust economic growth.

Sanders, though, offers a model for what can invigorate the Grand Old Party: a conservative insurrection candidate in 2024 brimming with outside-the-box (or at least outside the “mainstream”) policy ideas.

Like Sanders, such a candidate probably won’t win the party’s nomination; but she could shake up the party, move it to the right, and make it a more viable vehicle for much-needed political and policy reform based on federalism and entrepreneurial capitalism.

In short, Bernie was right to push for a “revolution.” The problem was he pushed for the wrong type of revolution, and our politics is suffering now as a result.

But we on the right can learn from Bernie’s example and follow his political model or playbook to right the ship of state in the years ahead. Let’s hope—and pray—that we do.

Feature photo creditAssociated Press via the New York Post.

Hold Trump Accountable for the Crisis Surrounding the Coronavirus

We’ve noted here at ResCon1 that President Trump’s failure to act early and decisively on the coronavirus has endangered American lives and forced the United States to take even more draconian measures than otherwise would have been necessary. 

Trump’s apologists, however, are pushing back and telling us that we shouldn’t “politicize” this crisis.

Instead, they assert, implicitly (and sometimes explicitly), that we should rally around the president, who presumably is now taking the requisite bold and resolute actions necessary to combat the coronavirus. 

As Washington Post columnist Marc Thiessen put it on Fox News Special Report Monday night, March 16, 2020:

Well, it [politics] shouldn’t creep in. I mean, this is a time when we should come together as a nation [and] put aside partisanship, put aside the backbiting.

Look, after this is all over, I’m sure we’re gonna have a 9/11 commission-style investigation that’s gonna look through [all of this]—not to lay blame, but to figure out, just as we did after 9/11: where were the gaps; what didn’t work; what failed; what succeeded?

So [that] when the next pandemic comes around, we can fix it. But this is not the time for laying blame.

Nice try, but Thiessen has it exactly wrong and backward. In a representative democracy such as ours, and with a presidential election fast approaching now is exactly the time for “laying blame”—or, to be more precise:

Now is exactly the time to hold our elected leaders—especially the top political leader with the most responsibility and authority for protecting and safeguarding the American people—accountable for their what they did and did not do as the gathering storm approached.

Thiessen’s plea to “put aside the backbiting” echoes Trump’s own call to “end the finger-pointing.” But as David Frum points out in The Atlantic:

It’s a strange thing for this president of all presidents to say. No American president, and precious few American politicians, have ever pointed so many fingers or hurled so much abuse as Donald Trump.

What he means, of course, is: Don’t hold me to account for the things I did—[and did not do, but should have done].

But he did do them, and he owns responsibility for those things. He cannot escape it, and he will not escape it.

In short, bemoaning the “politicization” of this crisis is a transparent attempt to try and evade or avert responsibility and accountability for a leader’s actions and failings.

Accountability is important because, as I observed last week when calling on the Senate to censure Minority Leader Chuck Schumer:

The failure and unwillingness of institutions—churches, schools, corporations, professional societies, et al.—to maintain standards of professional conduct, and to police and disciplined their own, is a big reason institutions increasingly have lost the public’s trust and confidence, and, with that, their ability to mold the American character and shape the nation’s destiny.

This is not an insight unique to me, or even one that I can claim credit for.

Instead, as I’ve reported here at ResCon1, Yuval Levin makes this point brilliantly in a new and important book: A Time to Build: From Family and Community to Congress and the Campus, How Recommitting to Our Institutions Can Revive the American Dream.

Our political institutions, including the Congress and the Presidency, are like any other institution, but arguably more important than other institutions because of the scope and magnitude of their responsibility.

Thus if we wish to maintain public trust and confidence in our political leaders and institutions, then we must hold these leaders and institutions accountable for their actions—and for when they fail to act.

This is not  a partisan point for me. That’s why I called on the Senate to censure Democratic Senator Chuck Schumer; and it is why I insist that we hold Republican President Donald Trump to account as well

If Senator Schumer had acknowledged wronging and offered a sincere, good-faith apology after threatening two Supreme Court justices, then his censure might not be necessary.

If, likewise, President Trump had acknowledged that he wrongly minimized the coronavirus and mishandled the problem, then perhaps we could  simply “move on.” But he didn’t and we can’t.

And we shouldn’t. Our political leaders need to know that their misdeeds and failings will not be ignored and whitewashed for reasons of political expediency.

Instead, they will be held to account by we the American people, and by the institutions of American democracy: because here the people rule, and we expect and demand no less.

For this reason, President Trump should be forced to explain why he didn’t push for early and rapid testing of the coronavirus on a mass scale, and why he continually minimized the problem and suggested that it would disappear.

And the American people should consider Trump’s response—or non-response—when, this fall, they decide who will serve as president for the next four years.

Feature photo credit: Red Blue Divide.

Biden Emerges from the Primary Race with Big Political Advantages, But His Age and Record Are Looming Problems

Biden won big Tuesday night (March 10). Thus the pundits who wrongly insisted after Super Tuesday (March 3) that it was a two-man race between him and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders now acknowledge, belatedly, that Biden is the Democrats’ 2020 presidential nominee.

The Democratic primary results might also mean that Biden is the prohibitive favorite to win the White House. Consider:

First, Biden is not Hillary. He does appreciably better with working class whites, white ethnics, and black male voters than Hillary. These are voters whom Hillary under-performed with against Trump as compared to past Democratic presidential nominees.

Biden’s relative success with these voters spells real trouble for Donald Trump, especially in Michigan and Pennsylvania, which he barely won in 2016.

Biden doesn’t have to win a majority of the white working class or white ethnics. Instead, he simply has to do better with these voters than Hillary and keep Trump’s margins down.

Biden, likewise, doesn’t necessarily have to win a greater share of the black vote.

Instead, he simply has to get more black Democrats to the polls versus staying home from indifference or apathy. All indications are that, for Biden, this will be a mission easily accomplished.

Second, Democratic voters are seriously motivated to vote against Trump, whom they despise. In the March 3 Virginia Primary, for instance, a record 1.3 million voters cast ballots, and voter turnout was up by 69 percent over 2016, reports the Washington Post.

In the nine Super Tuesday states, the Post notes, voter turnout grew by an average of 33 percent, according to Edison Media Research.

These are astounding numbers; and they spell real political trouble for the President, who again, won a very narrow, fluke victory in 2016.

Trump won in part because some Democratic voters were indifferent to Hillary and thus didn’t bother to vote. In 2020, with Biden as their nominee, it appears that these formerly indifferent Democratic voters intend to turn out and make their voices heard.

Third, although Biden is in no way a “moderate” or centrist Democrat, he nonetheless is being portrayed that way because of the contrast between him and self-avowed “democratic socialist” Bernie Sanders, and this helps Biden politically.

Most voters are not liberals, leftists or socialists; and centrist or independent voters are the ones up for grabs, politically.

Indeed, these are the voters Biden needs to win to unseat Trump; and, by being described incessantly in the media as a “moderate” or centrist, Biden already has a built-in advantage with these voters.

Trump will try to disabuse moderate or centrist voters of this misperception by pointing to Biden’s long and very liberal record as a senator, and his current left-wing views as a 2020 presidential candidate; but after months of conditioning by the media, that may prove to be a long, uphill slog. 

Fourth, Biden’s age is a real and worrisome problem for the Democrats. This is obvious to anyone with eyes to see, and to any honest political observer. Biden often misspeaks, flubs his words, and rambles incoherently in ways that suggest senility or dementia.

Biden also is prone to sudden bouts of intense energy and apparent anger followed by rambling incoherence.

This is not surprising given his advanced age. Should he win the election, after all, Biden would be 78 years old on inauguration day. He would be the oldest person ever elected president and the oldest serving president in our nation’s history.

The question is whether Biden can hold it together and avoid a major faux pas between now and Nov. 3, 2020, without giving voters real reason to think that he simply isn’t up to the job.

At the very least, there will be much greater weight and scrutiny given to Biden’s vice presidential pick, since may voters will correctly perceive that there is a strong likelihood that person will become president within the next four years.

Fifth, Trump needs a second-term agenda, especially if the economy slows or goes into a recession because of the twin shocks of the coronavirus and Saudi-Russian oil war.

Trump has had many praiseworthy achievements as president: corporate tax reform, record low unemployment, a strong and robust economy, two superb Supreme Court appointments, a phase one trade deal with China, and a concerted effort, against incredible partisan odds, to enforce the rule of law at the nation’s southern border.

Elections, though, are about the future, and voters will want to know what Trump plans to do in a second term. Unfortunately, Trump has said little about this and has offered up no new agenda. That will have to change if he intends to serve four more years.

The bottom line: Biden looks very strong coming out of this primary contest and has some real political advantages over Trump. His age and political record, though, are real liabilities; and Trump and the Republicans have yet to really go after him.

Moreover, a lot certainly can and will happen, politically, between now and election day. Who, after all, would have predicted the coronavirus? And these future happenings and events will affect the trajectory of the race and whom the nation chooses as its next president. Stay tuned.

Feature photo credit: The New Yorker.