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Why Is Russia Now Threatening Ukraine?

Biden’s weakness gave license to Putin’s aggression.

When, last August, Joe Biden abjectly surrendered Afghanistan to the Taliban, he and his administration  said this was necessary because the United States has no strategic interests there and must pivot, instead, to confront a rising China.

Never mind that, as William Lloyd Stearman points out, Bagram Air Base is strategically located “about 400 miles west of China and 500 miles east of Iran.” This, Stearman writes, is obviously “a good place to have American assets.”

U.S. Surrender in Afghanistan. Nonetheless, the President opted to withdraw all U.S. troops from Afghanistan and abandon Bagram to the Taliban. Mr. Biden pretended that his decision to surrender would not have deleterious and far-reaching strategic consequences.

Russia’s Vladimir Putin has proven Joe Biden wrong. The Russian dictator has amassed more than 100,000 troops and advanced military equipment along the Russian-Ukraine border, while demanding hegemonic control over Ukraine and other neighboring countries.

“We are concerned,” says White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki, “that the Russian government is preparing for an invasion in Ukraine that may result in widespread human rights violations and war crimes should diplomacy fail to meet their objectives.”

Indeed, not since Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1990 has the world seen such a brazen assault on  the sovereignty and territorial integrity of an independent nation-state.

Why now? Because Putin has taken the measure of Joe Biden and realizes that our President is unwilling to protect the American national interest in Afghanistan or Europe.

In fact, Biden has pledged not to deploy U.S. ground troops or military advisers to Ukraine, and he has been reticent to arm the Ukrainian military for fear of provoking Putin.

As Bret Stephens observes, Putin and other anti-American dictators watched the American debacle in Afghanistan and concluded that “the United States is a feckless power.

“The current Ukraine crisis,” Stephens writes, “is as much the child of Biden’s Afghanistan debacle as the last Ukraine crisis [in 2014] was the child of Obama’s Syria debacle.”

In short, weakness is provocative. Weakness begets aggression. Weakness courts disaster. And weakness can have deleterious strategic consequences as we are now learning in Ukraine.

Featured photo credit: Joe Bidden and Vladimir Putin, courtesy of Fox News.

Biden, Afghanistan, and the U.S. Military

No to ‘Forever Wars,’ but Yes to ‘Forever Forward Deployed’

“It’s time to end the forever war,” declared President Biden in his Apr. 14, 2021, announcement that he is withdrawing all U.S. military forces from Afghanistan.

No one wants to say that we should be in Afghanistan forever, but they insist now is not the right moment to leave…

So when will it be the right moment to leave? …War in Afghanistan was never meant to be a multi-generational undertaking.

Of course no sane American wants to fight a “forever war”—that is, an indeterminable conflict with no end in sight, only a mounting list of U.S. casualties. But the President is wrong when he argues that the only alternative to “endless war” is military retreat and withdrawal.

In fact, there is a third and much better option: forever forward deployed as a garrison force, in country, that works closely with our allies—in this case, the legitimately elected government of Afghanistan—to protect vital U.S. interests in the region.

This was the option strongly recommended to Mr. Biden by his own military advisers, as well as the bipartisan Afghanistan Study Group.

A small residual force of 4,500 U.S. troops, they argued, would be enough “for training, advising, and assisting Afghan defense forces; supporting allied forces; conducting counterterrorism operations; and securing our embassy.”

U.S. troops, after all, have been forward deployed in Germany, Japan, and South Korea for more than half a century. True, Afghanistan is a far cry from being remotely like any of these three countries; it remains wracked by armed conflict and civil war.

Progress. Nonetheless, with American military help, Afghanistan has made tremendous strides forward—socially, politically, economically, and militarily. U.S. casualties, meanwhile, have steadily and precipitously declined. As the New York Times’ Bret Stephens reports:

Millions of girls, whom the Taliban had forbidden to get any kind of education, went to school. Some of them—not nearly enough, but impressive considering where they started from and the challenges they faced—became doctors, entrepreneurs, members of Parliament.

“There have been no American combat deaths in Afghanistan since two soldiers were killed and six wounded on Feb. 8, 2020, in a so-called insider attack in eastern Afghanistan’s Nangarhar province,” reports the Desert News.

“The U.S.,” Stephens notes “has lost fewer than 20 service members annually in hostile engagements in Afghanistan since 2015. That’s heartbreaking for those affected, but tiny next to the number of troops who die in routine training accidents worldwide.

“Our main role in recent years,” he adds, “has been to provide Afghan forces with effective air power. It is not an exorbitant price to pay to avert an outright Taliban victory.”

Strategic Ramifications. And preventing the Taliban from winning matters for reasons that extend far beyond Afghanistan. It matters in China, Taiwan, and the South China Sea. It matters in Russia, Ukraine, Pakistan, and Iran. And it matters in North Korea, Europe, and the Middle East.

“Our enemies will test us,” warns Bing West.

After Saigon fell [in the Vietnam War], Russia and Cuba supported proxy wars in Latin America and Africa, while Iranian radicals seized our embassy in Tehran.

The Biden administration will face similar provocations. Already, China is threatening Taiwan, Russia is massing troops on the Ukraine border, and Iran is increasing its enrichment of uranium.

“The theory of deterrence relies not just on the balance of forces, but also on reserves of credibility,” Stephens explains. “Leaving Afghanistan now does next to nothing to change the former while seriously depleting the latter.”

Diplomatic Leverage. The President disparages the notion “that diplomacy cannot succeed without a robust U.S. military presence to stand as leverage.” Yet, he offers no evidence to refute this commonsensical and well-proven truth.

Instead, he blithely asserts:

We gave that argument a decade. It’s never proved effective—not when we had 98,000 troops in Afghanistan, and not when we were down to a few thousand.

But the failure to win in Afghanistan is a reflection of an intractable war in an antiquated tribal society; it is not an indictment of the necessary nexus between military and diplomatic power.

Recognizing that the U.S. military has failed to achieve victory in two decades of conflict and likely will never achieve victory in the classic sense does not mean that we must reject wholesale the use of military power in Afghanistan.

This is a colossal blunder and unforced error by Mr. Biden.

The President compounds his error by arguing that “our diplomacy does not hinge on having boots in harm’s way—U.S. boots on the ground. We have to change that thinking.”

In fact, we need to understand that a forward-deployed U.S. military presence overseas is a stabilizing force for the good and a critical component of American diplomacy.

False Choice. The bottom line: the choice between so-called endless war and abject withdrawal and retreat is a false choice. We do not have to accept either of these two badly mistaken and extreme options.

Instead, we should choose to be forever forward-deployed militarily in small but strategically significant numbers to protect our interests and put America First. The President’s failure to do so in Afghanistan jeopardizes our national security.

Feature photo credit: President Biden announces that he is withdrawing all U.S. military forces from Afghanistan by Sept. 11, 2021, courtesy of ABC News.

Ex-Navy Secretary Modly is Wrong About the Media and Wrong About the Military’s Use of the Media

The Acting Secretary of the Navy, Thomas B. Modly, resigned today after public outrage ensued from remarks he gave on the USS Theodore Roosevelt in which he called the ship’s former commanding officer, Brett Crozier, “too naïve or too stupid” to be in charge of an aircraft carrier.

As we reported here at ResCon1 Saturday, Modly relieved Crozier of his command because of a letter Crozier had written detailing the dire situation on the Roosevelt and pleading with the Navy to remove his men from the ship.

Sailors there had become infected with the coronavirus, which, given the close quarters on the ship, risked rapidly spreading throughout the ranks. Crozier’s letter was not classified; more than 20 people were on the receipt line; and it found its way into the San Francisco Chronicle.

There’s a lot to be said about this entire affair. For now, let me make just two observations:

First, I have no doubt that Modly spoke from the heart Monday when he explained to the crew of the USS Theodore Roosevelt why he had relieved their beloved skipper, Captain Brett Crozier, of his command.

Moldy’s remarks are salty, but sincere and genuine; and they should not be discounted simply because he spoke in blunt and earthy terms.

Indeed, calling Crozier “stupid,” or “naïve,” and guilty of “betrayal,” as Modly did, is hardly grounds for outrage if, in fact, Crozier did something that warrants such a description. 

Second, while Moldy’s language hardly warrants condemnation, the sum and substance of his criticism of Crozier is wrong and needs to be refuted.

Most informed observers seem to disagree with me and say the exact opposite: They criticize Modly for his sharp and abrasive attacks on Crozier, and for preempting the Navy’s uniformed leadership, which already had pledged to investigate the matter.

However, they accept Modly’s essential argument, which is that what Crozier did was fundamentally wrong and a bad mistake at best.

I could not disagree more. I think that what Crozier did by writing and releasing his letter was wise, prescient, and in accordance with the finest traditions of the U.S. military.

Let me explain why.

Modly’s most serious charge is that Crozier’s letter emboldened our enemies and compromised the war fighting capabilities of the Roosevelt. As Modly put it, Crozier’s letter 

raised concerns about the operational capabilities and operational security of the ship that could have emboldened our adversaries to seek advantage.

This is, obviously, a very legitimate concern, but one we should reject, and for three reasons:

First, it is no secret that U.S. military personnel serving on ships that routinely dock in foreign ports are at heightened risk of contracting the coronavirus, given their intimate living quarters. So questions were bound to be raised and asked about this.

And in fact, questions were raised about this in the media more than a month ago, in late February and early March 2020.

We live, moreover, in a free and democratic country, where the families of U.S. military personnel rightly demand to know about the health and safety of their deployed service men and women—volunteers all.

The idea that you can keep this information secret in the 21st Century—an age in which everyone has worldwide, instantaneous communication at their fingertips—is ludicrous and unworkable.

Our enemies know that the coronavirus is affecting our military personnel, just as they know it is affecting them and everyone else. A pandemic, after all, is, by definition, an international problem. There are no secrets here to hide or conceal.

Second, our enemies and adversaries—including China, Russia, Iran, al-Qaeda, and ISIS—all have their hands full right now with the coronavirus.

Thus they are in no way ready or prepared to try and exploit this international public health crisis by attacking the awesome power and capability of the United States Navy and Marine Corps.

Thirdas Capt. Crozier explained throughout his letter, in very clear and explicit detail, the ship’s war-fighting mission must and always does take precedence over the health and safety of its sailors. 

“If required,” he wrote

the USS THEODORE ROOSEVELT would embark all assigned Sailors, set sail, and be ready to fight and beat any adversary that dares challenge the U.S. or our allies. The virus would certainly have an impact, but in combat we are willing to take certain risks that are not acceptable in peacetime.

However, we are not at war, and therefore cannot allow a single Sailor to perish as a result of this pandemic unnecessarily. Decisive action is required now in order to comply with the CDC and NAVADMIN 083/20 guidance and prevent traffic outcomes…

“During wartime,” he explained, we

maximize war fighting readiness and capacity as quickly as possible. No timeline necessary. We go to war with the forces we have and fight sick. We never achieve a COVID-free TR. There will be losses to the virus.

In fact, as Crozier pointed out, decisive action was required precisely stop the virus from infecting the entire crew and thereby crippling the Roosevelt’s war-fighting capability. But since “war is not imminent, we recommend pursuing the peacetime end state [emphasis added].

Thus, far from being emboldened to attack because of Crozier’s letter, our enemies instead are deterred: because they know that this commanding officer states explicitly that the ship’s warfighting mission is paramount and will always be pursued regardless of the health of his crew.

In other words, if attacked or called upon, we will fight and go to war come hell or high coronavirus. 

The bigger issue here, though, is whether openness and transparency about the state of our military is an operational weakness or strength. I believe that it is a strength because it allows us to quickly identify problems and correct deficiencies.

Modly doesn’t disagree. He just thinks that the review process has to be done quietly and discreetly behind a veil of secrecy. But history proves this just isn’t the case, and that the opposite is true. Without public exposure and debate, bureaucracies grow hidebound and resistant to change.

We saw this problem in an extreme form in the former Soviet Union, which, for 70 years habitually lied to itself to maintain its power structure, despite obvious and manifest failures that immiserated the country for decades.

The United States, thankfully, has not suffered a similar fate; but that is not because our bureaucracy is necessarily any better. Instead, it is because we live in a free and open country, in which bureaucratic decisions—including bureaucratic-military decisions—are routinely subject to scrutiny, criticism and debate.

The media are an integral part of this self-correction and improvement process.

Washington Post reporter Greg Jaffee notes, for instance, that, in 2007, at the height of the Iraq War, the Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, thanked USA Today for stories that exposed problems with armored vehicles in Iraq. Gates appreciated USA Today’s reporting because it prodded the Pentagon to make more timely vehicular improvements, which saved American lives.

“Gates, likewise, praised [Washington Post reporters] Dana Priest and Anne Hull for their series exposing problems at Walter Reed,” notes New York Times reporter Peter Baker.

“I would say when there is an article critical of us, don’t go into a defensive crouch. Maybe you’ve just been handed a gift to solve a problem [that] you didn’t know existed,” Gates then said.

Sure, in the heat of battle and the fog of war, secrecy may be paramount and justified. Of course. But aside from those rare moments of actual conflict, secrecy is a big mistake and a weak rationalization that bureaucrats like Modly use to hide their failures and conceal their mistakes.

In truth, the United States, and the U.S. military in particular, benefit from being so open and transparent about our issues and challenges. That is not a weakness; it is a comparative advantage—and it is a big reason we retain a decided edge over our enemies.

Yet, incredibly, Modly told sailors and Marines in Guam that “there is no, no situation where you go to the media: because the media has an agenda.”

A Soviet commissar could not have put it any better. But this bureaucratic edict was bad in the original Russian, and it’s no better in English.

In truth, the media have an important role to play. And a military that has nothing to hide, and which understands the necessity and importance of outside input and review, should encourage, not shun, media scrutiny. Bring it on. Now more than ever.

Feature photo credit: Thomas B. Modly via Newport Buzz.

Trump Needs to Stop Coddling China’s Communist Regime and Put America First

We’ve learned again in recent days that the problem with the Trump administration is not the administration—it’s Trump.

While the administration has rightly called out China for its purposeful lying about the coronavirus and its deliberate anti-American propaganda, Trump has been minimizing China’s culpability and trying to appease its communist regime.

The National Security Council, for instance, tweeted Mar. 18, 2020

https://twitter.com/WHNSC/status/1240351140774137857

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, likewise, has spoken truthfully, candidly, and importantly, publicly, about China’s reckless and dangerous behavior (Mar. 18 on Fox News’ Hannity:

“Instead of trying to do the work to suppress the virus, which is what the world demanded, the Chinese Communist Party didn’t get it right and put countless lives at risk as a result of that,” Pompeo told Sean Hannity.

Pompeo added that the Chinese government had created a “disinformation campaign,” and “wasted valuable days at the front end” after the virus was first reportedly discovered in November.

“They haven’t been sufficiently transparent. And the risk you find [is] if we don’t get this right, if we don’t get to the bottom of this, is this could be something that is repeatable,” Pompeo warned. “Maybe not in this form, maybe not in this way, but transparency matters.”

That’s exactly right. Too bad Trump doesn’t understand this. Here’s what the President said after talking with his “friend,” Xi Jinping, the dictator of China (Mar. 27):

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1243407157321560071

Much respect?! Trump sucking up to China’s dictator would be laughable were the matter not so critical to U.S. national security.

China has accused the United States of hatching the coronavirus and spreading it worldwide. And they are waging a propaganda war against the United States to undermine our influence and dominate the world. Yet, Trump has “much respect” for China and its dictator, Xi Jinping.

Moreover, as CNN’s Jennifer Hansler reports, when

asked about reported efforts by China, Russia and Iran to mislead the public about the source of the deadly pandemic and the US response to it, Trump countered by voicing doubt about the media reports and suggesting that they were aimed at damaging his presidency.

“Number one you don’t know what they’re doing, and when you read it in the Washington Post, you don’t believe it,” Trump said on Fox & Friends.

“I believe very little of what I see. I see stories in the Washington Post that are so fake, that are so phony.

Pressed on the fact that the Chinese government has engaged in such a disinformation campaign, the President seemed to downplay the matter.

“They do it and we do it and we call them different things and you know, I make statements that are very strong against China, including the Chinese virus, which has been going on for a long time,” Trump said. “Every country does it.”

No, Mr. President, every country does not lie and sow disinformation. China is in a league of its own.

In any case, what Trump says is not what his own Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, says. Nor is it what Trump’s own coronavirus response coordinator, Deborah Birx, M.D., says.

During yesterday’s White House briefing, Birx explained that, because China lied big-time about the number of people there infected with the virus, U.S. officials were caught flatfooted and unprepared for how big a problem COVID-19 really is.

National Review’s Zachary Evans reports:

“When you looked at the China data originally,” with 50,000 infected in an area of China with 80 million people, “you start thinking of this more like SARS than you do a global pandemic,” Birx said at a press conference.

“The medical community interpreted the Chinese data as, this was serious, but smaller than anyone expected,” Birx continued.

“Because, probably… we were missing a significant amount of the data, now that we see what happened to Italy and we see what happened to Spain.”

“The reality is that we could have been better off if China had been more forthcoming,” Vice President Mike Pence said Wednesday on CNN.

What appears evident now is that long before the world learned in December that China was dealing with this, and maybe as much as a month earlier than that, that the outbreak was real in China.

Yet, at this same White House briefing, Trump disgracefully downplayed Chinese culpability, while touting his “good relationship” with the dictator, Xi.

I think we all understand where it [the coronavirus] came from. And President Xi understands that. And we don’t have to make a big deal out of it.

We didn’t like the fact that they said it came from our [U.S.] soldiers. And they haven’t pursued that. It was—and that was a mid-level person said that. That was not a high-level person, so I assume.

I will always assume the best. I’ll assume the high-level people didn’t know about it. It was a foolish statement.

Why would any American President “assume the best” when it comes to the China’s communist regime?

Shouldn’t we “presume the worst,” given the regime’s history and record of lying, deceit, and anti-American vitriol, propaganda and hostility?

Moreover, as HotAir’s AllahPundit points out

It was a spokesman for China’s foreign ministry that elevated the “blame America” theory of the virus. The claim had been circulating on Chinese social media for weeks, doubtless with the consent of state censors.

It’s not like some random Chinese official went rogue and started pushing a message that Beijing opposed. Chinese officials who go rogue tend to disappear.

But no worries, because says Trump:

The relationship with China is a good one, and my relationship with him [Chinese dictator Xi Jinping] is, you know, really good.

If the relationship is “really good,” then why are the Chinese accusing the United States of causing the COVID-19 pandemic, and why did they lie to our scientists and medical personnel about the severity of the outbreak in China?

Well, again, let’s not worry too much about that says Trump:

Their numbers seem to be a little bit on the light side, and I’m being nice when I say that relative to what we witnessed and what was reported.

But we discussed that with him, not so much the numbers, as what they did and how they’re doing. And we’re in constant communication.

I would say the biggest communication is [between] myself and President Xi. The relationship’s very good

As to whether or not their numbers are accurate, I’m not an accountant from China.

No, but you are President of the United States. Instead of making excuses for America’s enemies—and make no mistake: China’s communist regime is an enemy of the United States, not simply a “competitor” or an “adversary”—you should be putting America First. 

But Trump, of course, has his excuses. He always does:

Look, they’re spending—they will be spending, when things even out—this is obviously a little bit of a hurdle, what’s happened over the last month.

But they’ll be spending $250 billion buying our product[s]: $50 billion to the farmers alone; $200 billion to other things.

They never did that before. So, we have a great trade deal, and we’d like to keep it. And the relationship is good.

Rhetorical Appeasement. There you have it. Trump believes he must appease China because if he does not—if, instead, he speaks candidly and forthrightly about the regime’s bad and virulently anti-American behavior—that might jeopardize our so-called phase one trade deal.

But this is nonsense. The truth is: China is hurting—because of the coronavirus and because of their own economic mismanagement. Thus they need American products in a very bad way. They really have nowhere else to go.

But even were it otherwise, Trump needs to take a more strategic and longer-term view.

What is most likely to effect a change in China’s bad and virulently anti-American behavior: appeasement now or speaking truth to the world and to Chinese regime power?

What is most likely to strengthen the hands of China’s liberal-minded reformers: striking deals with hardline communists like the dictator, Xi, or calling him out and showing everyone that the emperor has no clothes?

What is more likely to bring China into the community of peace-loving nations that respect the rule of law and intellectual property: making excuses for the regime and downplaying its transgressions, or holding it to account and highlighting its misdeeds?

Peace Through Strength. In 1983, Ronald Reagan called the Soviet Union the evil empire. By calling out the regime, he helped to expose and weaken it until, finally, several years later, it collapsed.

Granted, China is not the Soviet Union. However, it is a bad and corrupt regime that needs to alter its course on the world stage and change its behavior.

But this won’t happen if, in the name of short-term gain and “phase one” trade deals, the United States coddles China and looks the other way even as the regime wages a sophisticated propaganda war against us.

Just ask the Trump administration. It knows and understands China’s communist regime. Too bad the man who leads that administration does not.

As we’ve seen time and time again: The problem is not the Trump administration. The problem is Trump.

Feature photo credit: Thomas Peter/Getty Images in Politico.

What Will Trump Do In Afghanistan?

Only 11 days have passed since the United States signed a so-called peace deal with the Taliban that laid out a 14-month timetable for the withdrawal of all U.S. troops from Afghanistan; but already we know how events there will unfold and what the crucial decision points will be in the months ahead.

We know this because we’ve been in Afghanistan for nearly 19 years and we know the Taliban. We know that they remain committed to overthrowing the legitimately elected government of Afghanistan, conquering the country, and establishing a so-called Islamic Emirate.

What we don’t know for sure is how President Trump will respond when the Taliban renege on the deal, or exploit the deal’s many ambiguities, to realize their longstanding political objective. The early signs, unfortunately, are worrisome.

Last Friday (Mar. 6), for instance, Trump seemed nonplussed when asked whether he is worried that the Taliban might overrun the country after the U.S. leaves. “Well, you know, eventually, countries have to take care of themselves,” he said.

We can’t be there for… another 20 years. We’ve been there for 20 years and we’ve been protecting the country [Afghanistan]. But eventually, they’re going to have to protect themselves…

You can only hold somebody’s hand for so long. We have to get back to running our country, too.

History Lesson. Sigh. Of course, the United States has troops in Afghanistan not to protect Afghanistan, but to protect the United States. The Taliban gave sanctuary to the terrorists who used Afghanistan to plan and execute the bombing of the Pentagon and World Trade Center towers.

As a result, the United States invaded Afghanistan and deposed the Taliban. And we have been working with the legitimately elected government of Afghanistan ever since to ensure that a 9/11 bombing or similar terrorist attack never happens again. This is not charity; it is national security. 

It’s frightening and sadly disconcerting that Trump seems not to understand this despite having been president for the past three-plus years.

On the other hand, as we’ve noted here at ResCon1, there are times where Trump does seem to recognize the strategic importance of Afghanistan and the history there. So maybe he’s not as stupid and clueless as he often sounds.

In any case, the top U.S. commander in the Middle East, Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie, told the House Armed Services Committee yesterday that the Taliban are continuing to carry out military attacks in violation of its agreement with the United States.

McKenzie, reports the Associated Press, told the committee

he has no confidence that the [Taliban] will honor its commitments, but said his optimism or pessimism about the future doesn’t matter because any decision will be based on facts and what happens on the ground.

Decision Point. In other words, in the coming months, and especially next fall, Gen. McKenzie will tell Trump that the Taliban are not negotiating in good faith and have stepped up their attacks on the Afghan government in violation of the agreement.

Gen. McKenzie will tell Trump that the Afghan government needs U.S. support or it will will be overrun by the Taliban. What will Trump do?

Right now, it clearly sounds as if Trump will say: “I understand General, but we’ve been there too long. We must get out regardless [of the consequences].”

That’s obviously what Trump wants to do. But would he really risk allowing Afghanistan to become another terrorist training camp and base of operations? Would he really risk another 9/11-style terrorist attack?

We’ll soon find out.

Feature photo credit: Google Maps.