Ironically but predictably, Biden’s timidity in arming Ukraine is increasing the possibility of a larger-scale war involving not just Russia, but China and Iran.
The concern, articulated this weekend by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, that China is giving serious consideration to providing lethal aid to Russia for its war on Ukraine has raised anew the possibility of “World War III,” or a larger-scale war that involves not just Russia and Ukraine, but their confederates, China and Iran.
Of course, no one, save for the enemies of freedom, wants a larger-scale war on three different fronts: in Europe over Ukraine; in Asia and the first island chain surrounding Taiwan; and in the Middle East over Iran, Syria, and Saudi Arabia.
But unfortunately, China and Iran are formally aligned with Russia and are working to prolong the war in Ukraine. Both countries realize that if America and the West are tied up in Europe, they will be less capable of responding to threats in Asia and the Middle East.
Which is why we have argued, forcefully, for the United States to fully and quickly arm Ukraine, so as to bring about a swift Ukrainian victory and a thorough Russian defeat. The Biden administration, however, has had other ideas.
Misplaced Fear. The administration has feared “provoking Putin” and doing anything that might “escalate” the conflict and thereby precipitate “World War III.” Of course, these fears never made any sense.
Putin, after all, does not need to be “provoked.” He already is hellbent on subjugating all of Ukraine, and nothing other than Russia’s outright military defeat will disabuse him of this notion. For the entire past year’s duration of the war, remember, he has consistently shown no interest in diplomacy, “off-ramps,” or compromise of any sort.
As for “escalation,” that presupposes an ability to “escalate,” militarily; but Russia has no such ability. It already has thrown its entire military apparatus at Ukraine, including an estimated 97% of the entire Russian army, which is now in Ukraine, reports British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace.
Yes, of course, Russia has a vast arsenal of nuclear weapons; but tactical or battlefield nuclear weapons give Russia no military benefit or advantage other than shock value and frightening the West.
Meanwhile, there are real and consequential downside risks to being the first country since World War II to use nuclear weapons. Russia would become a pariah nation everywhere and would antagonize especially India and China, which currently buy its oil and provide Russia with significant non-lethal aid.
Strategic nuclear weapons are also a nonstarter. Russia is not about to risk a strategic nuclear war and the destruction of Moscow for the sake of conquering Ukraine. It hasn’t done so thus far and it won’t do so in the future because Ukraine, unlike Moscow, is not part of Russia and Putin knows it.
As for “World War III,” this conjures up images of a long, drawn-out war involving multiple countries in different theaters of operation similar to how World Wars I and II were fought. But what has been most notable about the first year of this war is that Russia fights alone and in Ukraine only.
Certainly, this was the case for the first six months of the war.
Before the war began, China and Russia signed an agreement pledging “no limits” to their mutual support. Yet China thus far has refrained from providing Russia with military weapon systems and battlefield assistance. Iran began providing Russia with cheap drones six months into the war.
The problem is that the longer this war drags on interminably, the more likely it is that it metamorphoses into “World War III.” The more likely it is that China and Iran opt to step-up or increase their support for Russia. And the more likely it is that both countries opt to open up new fronts: in Asia and the Middle East, respectively.
After all, when, earlier on in the conflict, a Russian defeat looked possible and perhaps even likely, it made eminent sense for China to avoid actively supporting Russia. What good would that do? Why back a loser? Why throw good money after bad?
China’s Shifting Calculus. But now that a Russian defeat looks less likely and not at all imminent, China’s calculus has undoubtedly changed. If the war can be prolonged indefinitely, then America, NATO, Europe, and the West can be kept occupied, and drained militarily and economically. That certainly would serve China’s interests, especially as it considers acting to subjugate Taiwan.
Ditto for the mullahs in Iran as they seek to dominate the Middle East. If America and the West are bogged down in Europe, that gives them less ability to oppose Iranian hegemony in the Middle East.
For these reasons, it behooves the Biden administration to act with a sense of urgency in aiding Ukraine.
A long war is morally unconscionable because it means more death, destruction, and misery. But a long war also increases the likelihood of a true world war fought in three different theaters of operation. And this is a war the United States is unprepared to fight, given its disgraceful lack of a defense industrial base.
Seth Jones reports, for instance, that in a war with China over the Taiwan Strait,
the United States would likely run out of some munitions—such as long-range, precision-guided munitions—in less than one week… [And] it would take an average of 8.4 years to replace Major Defense Acquisition Program (MDAP) inventories at surge production rates.
The bottom line: “World War III” was never a possibility so long as the United States was committed to a swift Ukrainian victory. But utterly misplaced fears about “provoking Putin” and “escalating” the conflict have caused the Biden administration to play for a tie, not a win, in Ukraine.
The result has been a long and protracted war with no end in sight; and this, ironically, is making a true “World War III” scenario an increasing possibility.
As Luke Coffey puts it: “Right now we are arming Ukraine so it can survive. We need to start arming Ukraine so it can win.” The and only then might we avert disaster. Then and only then might we avert “World War III.”
Feature photo credit, courtesy of the Express. The axis of evil (L-R): Iranian mullah/president Ebrahim Raisi, Chinese dictator Xi Jinping, and Russian dictator Vladimir Putin are all being empowered by the Biden administration’s timidity in arming Ukraine.