No one should be under any illusions that a second Trump administration would be anywhere near as hawkish as the first Trump administration.
Republicans who believe in a strong national defense and an assertive U.S. foreign policy, and who supported President Trump in the 2016 and 2020 general elections, cannot pull the lever for him again in 2024.
Why? Because of Trump’s own statements about Ukraine, Putin, Iran, and Russia. And because, in a second Trump administration, Trump almost certainly will be more isolationist and accommodating of Russian President Vladimir Putin and other anti-American dictators.
Perennial “never Trumpers” will say, of course, that they were never fooled. “America First,” they say, had tainted origins dating back to the 1930s before the Second World War. But whatever the history of the “America First” movement, there is no denying that, in his first administration, Trump was no isolationist.
To the contrary, thanks to Vice President Mike Pence, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, National Security Advisers H.R. McMaster, John Bolton, and Robert C. O’Brien, Deputy National Security Adviser Matthew Pottinger, Ambassador Nikki Haley, Senator Lindsey Graham, and others, Trump often acted in a strong, Reaganesque fashion.
Trump 2017-2021. Thus he ordered and oversaw the quick destruction of ISIS, adoption of the historic and path-breaking Abraham Accords, and the killing of Iranian General Qassem Suleimani.
Trump withdrew from the fatally flawed Iran nuclear deal and Paris climate accord. He recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and launched retaliatory missile strikes at Syria to degrade its chemical weapons program.
And, perhaps most historic, long-lasting, and consequential: Trump became the first president to recognize that China posed the greatest strategic threat to American national security since the Soviet Union a generation ago during the Cold War.
Thus he began the necessary process of decoupling the U.S. economy from China’s, a process that will play out over the next two decades.
Now, to be sure, there are plenty of things about Trump’s foreign policy that deserve condemnation. He shamelessly, for instance, abandoned our Kurdish allies in Syria, while setting the stage for Biden’s disastrous withdrawal and surrender in Afghanistan.
Trump’s China policy also was lacking. He foolishly withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement and failed to build and sustain an anti-China alliance on the world stage. Trump also was late to recognize the threat from COVID, mostly because he was too eager to reach a trade deal with China.
‘America First’ means…? But that’s exactly the point: “America First” was always a jump ball policy-wise in Trump’s first administration. It could mean either hawkish or dovish positions, depending on who proved most influential with The Donald. The two factions competed for Trump mindshare.
But that almost certainly won’t be the case in a second Trump administration. The hawks have mostly moved on. In fact, many of them—Ambassador Nikki Haley and National Security Adviser John Bolton, for instance—moved on well before Trump had completed his first term.
Trump’s isolationists supporters, meanwhile, have grown more vocal, more strident, and more influential. They also have big and consequential megaphones, thanks to Fox News and social media.
Ukraine. Tucker Carlson, for instance, rails regularly and often against American support for Ukraine. Laura Ingraham calls the war a costly disaster and a diversion from the real “America First” agenda.
Other prominent and influential Trump supporters call for the United States to negotiate a “compromise solution” that will end the war and bring peace to Ukraine. As a result, Trump now says that he would bring Putin and Zelensky to the negotiating table to end the war.
The problem is that by negotiating with Putin, Trump serves to legitimize and strengthen Putin. And any negotiated settlement now would result in the formal annexation of Ukrainian territory by Russia.
This is an obvious nonstarter. But who would convince Trump otherwise?
Maybe Senator Graham, but he would do so from the Senate and would face the opposition of a bevy of new isolationist Trump administration officials like Russian accommodationist Douglas Macgregor. The hawks have moved on and, for the most part, will be gone in a second Trump administration.
Trump 2025-2029. And it’s not just Ukraine, but NATO, Israel, and our Gulf States allies as well that would be endangered in a second and more isolationist Trump administration.
Trump has often flirted with withdrawing from NATO and he might well do so given a second term.
This, obviously, would be disastrous for American national security. It would immeasurably strengthen Putin’s hand and threaten the peace and security of Europe, especially Eastern Europe, in a way not seen since the 1930s just prior to the Second World War.
Trump also has expressed his desire to reach a deal with Iran. “I would have had a deal done with Iran one week after the [2020] election,” he boasts.
True, in his first term, Trump imposed severe sanctions on Iran, but given Trump’s eagerness to show that he is a great dealmaker, and given the absence of hawkish advisers in a second Trump administration, it is all too easy to see Trump agreeing to a bad deal that strengthens the hand of the mullahs and paves the way for their acquisition of nuclear weapons.
In short, no one should be under any illusions that Trump’s foreign policy in a second term would the same as it was in his first term of office.
To the contrary: there are deep-seated and disquieting reasons to believe exactly the opposite: that Trump’s foreign policy would swerve wildly and recklessly to the left precisely to appease his most fervent and fevered isolationist supporters on the populist right.
Conclusion. For this reason, no one seriously committed to a strong national defense and an assertive U.S. foreign policy can possibly support former President Trump in 2024. The stakes are too high; the risks are too great; and the resultant damage would be too deep-seated and widespread.
In 2024, “America First” necessarily means “Donald Trump last and never again.”
Feature photo credit: YouTube screen shots of “America First” national security hawks Ambassador Nikki Haley (L) and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (R), courtesy of Fox News.