The West’s fear of ‘escalation’ makes no sense and is seriously undermining Ukraine’s ability to win the war.
As we’ve previously observed, the tendency to see Russia’s war on Ukraine through the antiquated prism of the Cold War has led many analysts astray, and nowhere is the more true than in the oft-expressed concern that the West do nothing that might “escalate” the conflict.
Of course, this concern is idiotic and counterproductive: because in practice, anything that might help Ukraine win and bring this conflict to a swift and successful conclusion is castigated as “escalatory” and, therefore, bad and dangerous. For example:
- Tanks. Should we provide tanks to Ukraine so that they can drive the Russians back into Russia? Not so fast, warn French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. That might be “escalatory” and we can’t have that.
- Ditto aircraft, which are critical to a Ukrainian combined arms offensive that could quickly overwhelm Russian forces. Aircraft are deemed “escalatory” and thus a no-go, says President Biden.
- ATACMS. What about the U.S. Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), which would increase Ukraine’s long-range precision strike capabilities by a factor of more than four, from 45 miles to 190 miles? Nope. No can do. Too “escalatory.”
- Russian Military Targets. Should Ukraine strike Russian military targets that lie within clear view just beyond the Russian-Ukraine border? Absolutely not! That would be the ultimate “escalatory” move.
In short, this fear of “escalation” has seriously narrowed the bounds of permissible Western military action vis-à-vis Russia and Ukraine and with the catastrophic consequence of a longer, more costly, and drawn-out war.
‘Escalation’. But it makes no sense. The fear of “escalation” is a relic of Cold War thinking. It does not reflect current political, military, and strategic realities.
Politically, Ukraine is a free and sovereign country, not a Soviet satellite state, and its existence does not pose an existential threat to Russia, and Russia knows this.
Strategically, there can be no peace and stability in Europe unless and until this conflict is resolved, and this means that either Ukraine or Russia must win. There is no middle-ground or modus vivendi as there was during the Cold War.
The two sides have clear and irreconcilable differences: Russia wants to conquer and subsume Ukraine, and Ukraine wants to be free and independent of Russia.
Militarily, Russia has shown itself to be weak and incompetent, and its possession of nuclear weapons does not change or alter this balance of power.
Russia is not about to risk a strategic nuclear war and the destruction of Moscow for the sake of conquering Ukraine, and tactical nukes give it no real military advantage in Ukraine.
Russia. Russia, in fact, has every reason to fear a larger-scale war with NATO, which is why such a war won’t happen. Russia can barely handle the under-armed Ukrainian Army. It is not about to pick a fight with vastly superior NATO military force.
Russia also fights alone. It has no allies of any military significance other than Iran, which provides Russia with cheap, subpar drones.
China, meanwhile, has wisely decided to sit this one out as it looks askance at Russian military weakness and ineptitude. Chinese state-owned companies are providing Russia with military-applicable parts, but not weapon systems or battlefield assistance.
Fear. Consequently, there is no reason to fear a larger-scale war resulting from “escalation.” There is, however, reason to fear a long and costly, drawn-out war that results from the West’s refusal to adequately arm Ukraine.
A fear of “escalation,” in fact, is a fear of Ukraine winning and Russia losing, and this fear makes no sense. As General Douglas MacArthur observed:
Once war is forced upon us, there is no other alternative than to apply every available means to bring it to a swift end. War’s very objective is victory, not prolonged indecision. In war there is no substitute for victory.
The bottom line: it is long past time for President Biden and other Western leaders to overcome their utterly misplaced fear of “escalation” and to commit to a Ukrainian victory over Russia.
Give the Ukrainians all of the military weapons systems—tanks, aircraft, long-range precision artillery, armed Reaper drones, et al.—that they need to bring this conflict to a swift and successful conclusion. And do this now, not six or 12 months from now.
The alternative is morally and militarily unconscionable. It is to allow Ukraine to be destroyed and innocent Ukrainian civilians to be slaughtered by the Russian war machine as this conflict grinds on interminably for years. That is in no one’s interest and it is as unnecessary as it is wrong. The Cold War, after all, ended more than 30 years ago.
Feature photo credit: President Biden, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and French President Emmanuel Macron have refrained from fully arming Ukraine because of their utterly misplaced fear of “escalating” the war. (Pic courtesy of ChannelsTv.com, Johanna Heron, Hannibal Hanschke, Nicolas Kamm / AFP.)