Only 11 days have passed since the United States signed a so-called peace deal with the Taliban that laid out a 14-month timetable for the withdrawal of all U.S. troops from Afghanistan; but already we know how events there will unfold and what the crucial decision points will be in the months ahead.
We know this because we’ve been in Afghanistan for nearly 19 years and we know the Taliban. We know that they remain committed to overthrowing the legitimately elected government of Afghanistan, conquering the country, and establishing a so-called Islamic Emirate.
What we don’t know for sure is how President Trump will respond when the Taliban renege on the deal, or exploit the deal’s many ambiguities, to realize their longstanding political objective. The early signs, unfortunately, are worrisome.
Last Friday (Mar. 6), for instance, Trump seemed nonplussed when asked whether he is worried that the Taliban might overrun the country after the U.S. leaves. “Well, you know, eventually, countries have to take care of themselves,” he said.
We can’t be there for… another 20 years. We’ve been there for 20 years and we’ve been protecting the country [Afghanistan]. But eventually, they’re going to have to protect themselves…
You can only hold somebody’s hand for so long. We have to get back to running our country, too.
History Lesson. Sigh. Of course, the United States has troops in Afghanistan not to protect Afghanistan, but to protect the United States. The Taliban gave sanctuary to the terrorists who used Afghanistan to plan and execute the bombing of the Pentagon and World Trade Center towers.
As a result, the United States invaded Afghanistan and deposed the Taliban. And we have been working with the legitimately elected government of Afghanistan ever since to ensure that a 9/11 bombing or similar terrorist attack never happens again. This is not charity; it is national security.
It’s frightening and sadly disconcerting that Trump seems not to understand this despite having been president for the past three-plus years.
On the other hand, as we’ve noted here at ResCon1, there are times where Trump does seem to recognize the strategic importance of Afghanistan and the history there. So maybe he’s not as stupid and clueless as he often sounds.
In any case, the top U.S. commander in the Middle East, Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie, told the House Armed Services Committee yesterday that the Taliban are continuing to carry out military attacks in violation of its agreement with the United States.
McKenzie, reports the Associated Press, told the committee
he has no confidence that the [Taliban] will honor its commitments, but said his optimism or pessimism about the future doesn’t matter because any decision will be based on facts and what happens on the ground.
Decision Point. In other words, in the coming months, and especially next fall, Gen. McKenzie will tell Trump that the Taliban are not negotiating in good faith and have stepped up their attacks on the Afghan government in violation of the agreement.
Gen. McKenzie will tell Trump that the Afghan government needs U.S. support or it will will be overrun by the Taliban. What will Trump do?
Right now, it clearly sounds as if Trump will say: “I understand General, but we’ve been there too long. We must get out regardless [of the consequences].”
That’s obviously what Trump wants to do. But would he really risk allowing Afghanistan to become another terrorist training camp and base of operations? Would he really risk another 9/11-style terrorist attack?
We’ll soon find out.
Feature photo credit: Google Maps.