COVID data tell a different and more positive story than the fear and alarmism propagated by the media.
The media, the politicians, and the public health experts are all warning about a dark and dangerous winter ahead. The dreaded “third wave” of the virus, we are told, is about to crest and with potentially devastating consequences for us all.
“Wave Three of the pandemic continues its rise, and America continues to be blanketed with new cases of COVID-19. This month has seen a million new reported infections a week,” said Margaret Brennan on Face the Nation.
“For the next two or three months, we’re in the fight of our lives,” declared New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy on Fox News Sunday. “There’s a lot of private-setting transmission [of the virus] going on.”
“In the two days since Thanksgiving, there have been 346,000 new confirmed COVID cases in the United States and 2,700 deaths.
“Of course, we won’t know for a while how bad the surge of cases and deaths due to Thanksgiving weekend travel will be,” said Chuck Todd on Meet the Press.
Progress. Of course, no one wishes to downplay the pandemic, which has killed far too many Americans (an estimated 266,000, according to John Hopkins’ Coronavirus Resource Center). But as the old English proverb has it, it is always darkest just before the dawn.
A review of the data suggests that maybe, just maybe, things aren’t as bleak as the media, the politicians, and the public health experts suggest.
After all: since COVID hit our shores last February:
- we have developed more effective treatment regimens and therapeutics;
- increasing numbers of patients have been treated on an outpatient basis and correspondingly fewer, relatively speaking, have been hospitalized; and
- the holy grail—safe and effective vaccines—are just a couple of months away from becoming widely available.
Perspective. No, this doesn’t mean all is well and that we’re “out of the woods,” as they say. But neither does it mean that that fear and alarmism should guide us.
What it does mean is that perspective is required; and that the assumption of reasonable risk is a necessary and integral part of life—with or without a pandemic.
President Trump has been a weak and inept leader, but he got many things right. He was especially right when, in October, he implored Americans not to let COVID-19 dominate them and ruin their lives.
“Don’t let it dominate you. Don’t be afraid of it,” Trump said.
You’re gonna beat it. We have the best medical equipment. We have the best medicines, all developed recently. And you’re gonna beat it…
Don’t let it take over your lives. Don’t let that happen. We’re the greatest country in the world.
We’re going back to work… We’re gonna be out front… I know there’s a risk; there’s a danger, but that’s OK…
Don’t let it dominate your lives. Get out there. Be careful. We have the best medicines in the world… and they’re all getting approved. And the vaccines are coming momentarily.
Admittedly, Trump blows a lot of smoke; but as the data shows, he’s not wrong. If you’re young and healthy, you have little to worry about. But if you’re older and have underlying health conditions, you are at heightened risk.
Either way, though, the mortality rate is remarkably low. Consider:
- COVID-19 case fatality rate in the United States: 2.0%, according to John Hopkins’ Coronavirus Resource Center
- COVID-19 case fatality rate in Germany: 1.5%
- COVID-19 case fatality rate in the United Kingdom: 3.6%
- # of vaccines now being fast-tracked into development: 6
The following three charts are equally illuminating. Their source:
Risk Factors for COVID-19 Mortality among Privately Insured Patients: A Claims Data Analysis of 467,773 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 from Apr. 1, 2020, through Aug. 31, 2020
—Published Nov. 11, 2020, by FAIR Health, Inc., in collaboration with the West Health Institute and Marty Makary, MD, MPH, from Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine
COVID Mortality Rates
| Age | All COVID Patients | COVID Patients With No Comorbidities |
|---|---|---|
| 0-18 | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 19-29 | 0.03% | 0.02% |
| 30-39 | 0.08% | 0.06% |
| 49-49 | 0.21% | 0.14% |
| 50-59 | 0.55% | 0.40% |
| 60-69 | 1.23% | 0.97% |
| 70+ | 5.19% | 2.74% |
| Overall Mortality Rate Irrespective of Age | 0.59% |
-
COVID-19 patients who died w/a preexisting condition: 83.29%
- COVID-19 patients who died w/out a preexisting conditions: 16.71%
COVID-19 Diagnoses v. COVID-19 Deaths
| Age | COVID-19 Diagnoses | COVID-19 Deaths |
|---|---|---|
| 0-18 | 6.61% | .11% |
| 19-29 | 18.15% | .94% |
| 30-39 | 17.35% | 2.40% |
| 40-49 | 18.51% | 6.72% |
| 50-59 | 21.43% | 20.05% |
| 60-69 | 13.13% | 27.35% |
| 70-79 | 4.82% | 42.43% |
COVID-19 Mortality and Hospitalization Rates February-August, 2020
| Month (Year 2020) | Mortality Rate | Hospitalization Rate | Percent of Total COVID-19 Cases (Feb.-Aug. 2020) |
|---|---|---|---|
| February | 4.9% | 35.1% | 0.5% |
| March | 3.5% | 20.5% | 11.7% |
| April | 1.9% | 9.2% | 23.6% |
| May | 0.6% | 5.8% | 16.5% |
| June | 0.4% | 5.4% | 22.7% |
| July | 0.2% | 3.7% | 20.8% |
| August | 0.0% | 1.1% | 4.2% |
In other words: the hospitalization and mortality rates have been decreasing even as COVID caseloads have been increasing. This suggests, clearly and compellingly, that the worst is behind us and better days lie ahead.Even though the percentage of COVID-19 cases was lowest in February, the mortality rate (percent of individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 who died) and hospitalization rate were at their highest.
Those rates declined in March but were still high compared to the months that followed.
Feature Photo Credit: WUSA-9 (CBS Washington, D.C.)