Trump won Arizona in 2016, but lost the state in 2020, and it looks like this loss has cost him the presidency. Yet, Arizona was eminently winnable for Trump—if only he hadn’t made an enemy of John McCain.
As I write (at 1:30 p.m. EST, the day after the election), there are six states—Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina—that are in neither the Trump nor Biden column; and so, we still do not know who will be president Jan. 20, 2021.
However, barring a major counting error or other surprise, we know that Trump has lost one important state—Arizona, with 11 electoral votes—that he won in 2016. And Trump’s loss of Arizona could well be the reason Trump is denied a second term.
Electoral Math. Indeed, Trump could win Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) while losing Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), and Nevada (6), and still win reelection—but only if he retains Arizona.
Otherwise, Trump falls an excruciating three electoral votes short of the requisite 270 needed to win.
This interactive map from 270towin.com spells it all out:
Arizona matters because I believe Trump will win Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Noth Carolina while losing Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. Which means that, because he lost Arizona, Trump has lost the presidency.
Yet, Arizona was completely winnable. Although it has become more competitive in recent years, the state has voted Democrat for president only one time since 1948, and that was in 1996, when Bill Clinton was cruising to reelection against a lackluster Republican opponent (Sen. Majority leader Bob Dole, R-Kansas) just as the Internet-fueled economic boom was heating up.
And why did Trump lose Arizona? In large part because he stupidly made an enemy of the late John McCain.
Political Feud. Enmity between the two men dates back to 2015, when Trump said that McCain is “not a war hero… because he was captured” by the North Vietnamese during a bombing mission over Hanoi.
This was a stupid and wrong-headed attack. McCain, after all, spent five-and-a-half heroic years as a prisoner of war in the “Hanoi Hilton,” where he was tortured and often placed in solitary confinement.
All Americans owe McCain a debt of gratitude for his courageous wartime service on behalf of our nation. Trump should have said as much and moved on.
Instead, he lashed out at McCain. As a result, McCann’s wife, Cindy McCain, agreed to be featured in Biden campaign commercials that figured prominently in Arizona.
Political Lessons. Trump’s loss of Arizona and its 11 critical electoral votes reminds us that in politics, as in sports, the team that makes the fewest mistakes—even if less talented—typically wins. And the team that is more focused and self-disciplined typically makes the fewest mistakes.
Trump, unfortunately, is the antithesis of focused and self-disciplined. Consequently, he made a major mental error by gratuitously going after McCain. That cost Trump Arizona, and, it looks like, a second term.
Feature photo credit: CNN.