The United States and NATO have the moral and military means to force Russia to stand down in the Black Sea. What they seem to lack is the will.
Russia’s threat to withdraw from its grain deal with Ukraine underscores Russian criminality and Western weakness. But the West is weak-willed; it is not militarily weak.
In fact, quite the opposite: the United States and NATO possess overwhelming military superiority and could quickly destroy the Russian military in Ukraine if they chose to do so.
Western Inaction. This is not to argue for a preemptive Western military strike on, say, Russia’s Black Sea naval fleet. Instead, it is to argue for a more forceful and assertive Western posture vis-à-vis Russia and the flow of Ukrainian grain to the rest of the world.
The fact is: the West occupies the moral high ground. Russia’s threat to block Ukrainian grain exports serves no military purpose.
However, it does serve to jeopardize the survival and well-being of millions of people worldwide—especially the poor and impoverished in less developed nations that struggle to overcome poverty and malnutrition.
Russian War Crimes. This latest Russian threat, moreover, cannot be divorced from ongoing Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure and residential neighborhoods in Ukraine. These attacks are quite literally criminal. They, too, serve no military purpose. They are war crimes and crimes against humanity.
For this reason, the West ought to be far more insistent than it has been about safeguarding the right of Ukraine to export grain through the Black Sea ports of Chornomorsk, Odesa, and Yuzhny/Pivdennyi to the rest of the world.
This means not simply protesting against Russian threats, but declaring, unequivocally, that the United States and NATO will ensure that Ukrainian grain exports continue unmolested; and that any Russian ship that tries to stop or interfere with this crucial humanitarian mission will be destroyed.
As the Wall Street Journal Editorial Board observes:
Denouncing Mr. Putin isn’t likely to change his mind about the grain initiative.
If he insists on a food blockade, the best response is for the U.S. to organize a coalition of the willing to escort grain shipments from Odessa and through the Black Sea.
It needn’t be a NATO operation, though the U.S. would have to lead it.
Wartime Ironies. One of the ironies of this war has been that Russia is economically and militarily weak, but brazen and aggressive. The West, by contrast, is economically and militarily strong, but timid and tentative. Consequently, the West too often has yielded the initiative to Russia.
This has been a big mistake. It is long past time for the United States and NATO to recognize that they have the whip hand, both morally and militarily, vis-à-vis Russia and to act accordingly.
A good place to start would be in the Black Sea: by ensuring that Ukrainian grain shipments to the rest of the world continue unabated without Russian interference.
Feature photo credit: TheWorldofMaps.com.