Wins and losses matter tonight, but the numbers and demographic data behind those wins and losses matter even more.
Joe Biden’s smashing victory in South Carolina Saturday (Feb. 29) has given him newfound momentum and a shot at winning the Democratic presidential nomination.
Nonetheless, Biden lags behind frontrunner Bernie Sanders in what is now clearly a two-man race, even though Elizabeth Warren and Michael Bloomberg are still formally running.
A big problem for Biden is the extraordinarily compressed primary calendar. Less than three days separate the South Carolina Primary from Super Tuesday (today, Mar. 3), in which voters in 14 states will go to the polls and choose roughly one-third of the Democratic Convention delegates.
This means that Biden has had virtually no time to capitalize on his South Carolina win—and no time since then to persuade Democratic primary voters that he is the man to lead them in their effort to eject Donald Trump from the White House.
Early Voting. Moreover, because of early voting, in some states, many Democratic primary voters already have cast their ballot and thus are not amenable to persuasion regardless of the results in South Carolina.
Sanders, meanwhile, has raised a boatload of money, mostly online through small-sized contributions, and has developed formidable grassroots political organizations in many states.
Financially and organizationally, Biden simply cannot compete with the Sanders juggernaut.
Biden does, though, have momentum and the full force of the Democratic Party establishment behind him. The establishment fears Bernie because it thinks he’s a general election loser who will be a drag on the party’s Senate and House candidates.
Biden also is helped by the fact that Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar dropped out of the race yesterday and endorsed him (Biden). Political analysts believe that centrist and moderate Democrats who would have voted for Buttigieg or Klobuchar are likely now to vote for Biden.
In addition, Biden benefits from the continued presence in the race of Elizabeth Warren, who takes votes away from Sanders. Sanders, meanwhile, benefits from the continued presence of Michael Bloomberg, who takes votes away from Biden.
So, where does that leave us, and what should we look for this evening when the results start rolling in?
First, even if, as expected, Biden mostly loses to Sanders tonight, can he keep these primary contests sufficiently close such that he gains a significant share of the Super Tuesday delegates?
The Democrats, remember, award their delegates proportionately in accordance with a candidate’s share of the vote, provided that candidate wins at least 15 percent.
Proportional delegate awards are especially important in California and Texas—big, delegate-rich states where a 15 percent showing at the local or district level can translate into delegates.
Thus more important than who wins individual states today is how they win and with what percent of the vote, both statewide and in specific local districts.
This matters: because even if, at the end of the primary season, Sanders ends up winning a plurality of the delegates, he could still lose the nomination to Biden at the party’s convention.
The reason: Democratic Party rules require that a candidate win a majority of the delegates, not a plurality.
Consequently, a deadlocked convention could decide, on a second ballot, to nominate Biden even if he won fewer delegates during the primaries than Sanders.
The delegate count thus matters in a big way now because large numbers of delegates (one-third on Super Tuesday) are being awarded.
Sanders needs to win an outright majority of the delegates, so that he can stop the party establishment from denying him the nomination.
Biden, conversely, needs to keep these primary contests close and prevent Sanders from winning a majority of the delegates, so that he (Biden) can win the nomination at the convention.
Second, can Bernie win a respectable share of the black vote, especially in the South?
This matters because African Americans are a core Democratic Party constituency whose support helps to confer legitimacy on a Democratic presidential candidate. And legitimacy becomes very important in the event that neither Sanders nor Biden win a majority of the delegates and the convention, therefore, must decide whom to nominate.
If, for example, Biden wins the black vote overwhelmingly on Super Tuesday as he did in South Carolina, then it becomes appreciably harder for Sanders to lay claim to the nomination even if he (Sanders) has a plurality of the delegates.
That is because Biden and his supporters will charge, with some accuracy and some justification, that Bernie has trouble winning black support; and that is a huge electoral handicap for any Democrats running against Trump.
Conversely, if Bernie can win a respectable share of the black vote, then he can say, with some accuracy and some justification, that he has broad-based electoral appeal and should be the nominee since he has won a plurality of the delegates.
In short, Super Tuesday won’t determine whom the Democrats nominate to take on Trump. However, Super Tuesday will set the battle lines for the likely showdown between Joe and Bernie at the party’s convention in Milwaukee, July 13-16.
Wins and losses matter tonight, but the numbers and demographic data behind those wins and losses matter even more. Stay tuned.
Feature photo credit: New York Times: results of the Democratic Party’s 2020 South Carolina Primary.