America and NATO need to focus on what they will do to defeat and discredit Putin.
The commentariat has been fiercely debating whether to impose a “no-fly zone” over Ukraine. This is an interesting tactical question that is worthy of debate; however, the more fundamental and important question is strategic:
Do America and NATO wish to defeat and discredit Putin in Ukraine, or are we simply looking to “deescalate tensions” and give Putin an “off-ramp” so that he can “save face”?
Unfortunately, too many in the West are intent on trying to appease Putin instead of defeating and discrediting him. Their ostensible reason for doing so is to “stop nuclear war” (the New York Times’ Ross Douthat) or at least prevent a wider war (U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken).
Off-Ramps. Of course, as is becoming increasingly clear, Putin himself has absolutely no interest in any “off-ramp” or “deescalation of tensions.” The Russians have willfully violated ceasefire agreements even as they deliberately target civilian population centers and commit war crimes.
The Washington Post reports:
“It’s important to remember that throughout this crisis created by Putin and Russia, we’ve sought to provide possible off-ramps to President Putin,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters in Washington on Wednesday.
“He’s the only one who can decide whether or not to take them. So far, every time there’s been an opportunity to do just that, he’s pressed the accelerator and continued down this horrific road that he’s been pursuing.”
Exactly. “Off-ramps” and “face-saving measures” are useless if Putin has no interest in that. They also are dangerous and provocative because they communicate weakness and a lack of resolve.
Nuclear War. Indeed, contra Douthat, a nuclear conflagration in Ukraine is more likely to result if America and NATO are not crystal clear about what will invite a devastating Western response.
For this reason, the West needs to draw its own “red lines” involving unacceptable Russian behavior and actions. Otherwise, Putin may be tempted to test fate—and us.
Instead, though, the Biden administration, and Western policymakers in general, have been obsessed with Putin’s red lines, real and imagined, and with what Eliot A. Cohen rightly calls, “self-deterrence”: explaining in detail what we absolutely will not do.
For example: we will not deploy ground troops; we will not deliver MiG fighter jets; we will not conduct long-planned nuclear tests; we will not impose a no-fly zone; we will not sanction Russian oil (until we did two days ago)…
As the Wall Street Journal Editorial Board puts it: “Instead of deterring Mr. Putin, Mr. Biden is letting the Russian deter the U.S.”
This is, needless to say, self-defeating. As Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) explains:
There’s a sentiment that we’re fearful about what Putin might do and what he might consider as an escalation. It’s time for him to be fearful of what we might do.
The only way to get Putin to act in a way that may be able to save lives of Ukrainians is if he fears us more than we fear him…
He’s got to think about what happens if he provokes us: because they [the Russian military] could be obliterated by the forces of NATO.
Exactly. The Russian military has been exposed in Ukraine as subpar and not at all ready for prime time. Their operations have been slow, plodding, disjointed, unimaginative, and utterly unimpressive.
U.S. officials estimate that, in these first two weeks of fighting, as many as 6,000 Russians have been killed. In its nearly two decades in Afghanistan, by contrast, the United States lost fewer than 2,500 soldiers.
In fact, because of the skill and tenacity of the Ukrainian military, as well as the courage and spirt of the Ukrainian people, the prospect of a strategic Russian defeat is likely—even if, as still appears probable, Russia ultimately wins a short-term but pyrrhic military victory and conquers Ukraine.
The West should relish the opportunity to defeat and discredit Putin. For two decades now, he has been a clear and present danger to the rules-based international order worldwide and to peace and stability in Europe.
Under his reign, Russia has waged war on its neighbors and threatened free and sovereign nations throughout Eastern Europe and Eurasia. Ukraine should be a wakeup call not to find a way to accommodate Putin, but to force him from power by making his position untenable.
Russia can have a new leader and a new leadership class. That is desirable and possible—but only if America and NATO stop self-deterring and worrying about Putin’s “red lines,” real and imagined.
Instead, the West needs to focus on its strategic, wartime objectives: a free, sovereign, and independent Ukraine; the withdrawal of all Russian troops from Ukraine, Belarus, and Georgia; and a new Russian government that respects international law and the territorial integrity of its neighbors.
This, in turn, will require a focus on deterrence and drawing our own inviolable “red lines.”
Featured photo credit: Screen shot of Senator Mitt Romney (R-Utah).