Should the commentariat reconsider Elizabeth Warren’s prospects in light of her impressive debate performance Wednesday night, during which she effectively destroyed whatever slim chance Michael Bloomberg had to win the Democratic presidential nomination?
That’s the question many journalists and pundits are now asking. It’s a fair question, of course, but the answer is “no,” and here’s why:
Although she can be an extraordinarily effective and formidable debater (Mona Charen calls her “the Terminator”), Warren has not demonstrated a corresponding ability to win votes, caucuses and primaries.
She finished third in Iowa, with less than a fifth of the vote, and fourth in New Hampshire, with just 9.2 percent of the vote. Warren also is losing to Sanders in her home state of Massachusetts. (“Losing your home state,” quips the Washington Examiner’s Philip Klein, “is the political equivalent of the Mendoza Line.”)
And these results almost certainly are the high-water mark for Warren. Indeed, for her campaign, it appears to be all downhill from here—even accounting for any post-debate bounce. The Nevada Caucuses, for instance, are tomorrow (Feb. 22), and a new Emerson College/8 News Now poll shows Warren finishing fourth, with just 12 percent of the vote.
For the sake of argument, let’s assume that Warren gains five points from the afterglow of her stellar debate performance. That’s still not nearly enough to overtake Bernie Sanders, who has a commanding lead in Nevada.
Moreover, report Shane Goldmacher and Astead W. Herndon in the New York Times, because of early voting, 75,000 Nevadans voted before the debate even took place.
The South Carolina primary (Feb. 29) is eight days away, and a new Winthrop University poll shows Warren in fifth place there, with an abysmal six percent of the vote.
Again, let’s assume, generously, that she gains five points from her debate performance: Warren’s still not anywhere close to overtaking Sanders or Biden in South Carolina. And she faces similar hurdles throughout the South.
In a word, Warren’s problem is Sanders. He stands in her way. They are both the most left-wing or “progressive” candidates running, and they both compete for the same voters. Warren’s problem is that woke progressives prefer Sanders and are far more loyal to him than they are to her.
The New Yorker’s Peter Slevin captured Warren’s predicament in a Feb. 20 report from Raleigh, North Carolina. “Morgan Jackson,” he notes,
a North Carolina political strategist, thinks that Warren is in trouble in the state, where Democrats are as divided as their counterparts across the country, and that Sanders, in particular, stands in her way.
“As long as they split the very progressive vote in North Carolina, there’s no path,” Jackson said, adding that neither candidate has been polling well among African-American voters, who comprise nearly half of the state’s electorate.
Even with her superior ground game, he believes, Warren cannot do well in the state unless she finds momentum somewhere, “and I don’t know where that is,” he said.
Second-Choice Candidate. Exactly. Warren is the left’s second-choice candidate. She did an excellent job discrediting Bloomberg. His net-favorability fell by 20 points post-debate, according to a new Morning Consult poll. Yet, she is still in fourth place, while Sanders has solidified his status as the front-runner.
In short, while Warren can continue to shape and disrupt this race, she cannot win the Democratic presidential nomination.
And this is not simply a matter of conjecture. We’ve already seen enough voting, polling, and real-world results to know that, while the party’s base respects Warren, it does not love her.
The left’s heart lies with Bernie. Centrist Dems, meanwhile, are more inclined to vote for Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, or Bloomberg.
Warren raised $5 million off of her debate performance and “reported the best hour of fundraising in [her] campaign’s history,” writes ABC News’ Cheyenne Haslett. So she may hang around in this race for a while longer.
However, her ultimate place in the primary contest already has been determined: second, third, fourth, or fifth place, but not first. Not this time. This time, it seems, Bernie’s the one.
Feature photo credit: Josh Edelson/AFP/Getty Images via Forbes.