When looked at through the long lens of history, COVID will be just the latest disaster that we Americans confronted and defeated as we scaled new and unfathomable heights.
With nearly 500,000 American deaths attributed to COVID in the past year, the news has been unrelentingly negative. Many of our friends, neighbors and loved ones are understandably frightened. They fear for themselves, for their families, and for the future.
But as the ancient proverb reminds us, “It is always darkest just before the dawn.” The ability of the human spirit to triumph over adversity should never be underestimated. And the spirit of entrepreneurship, ingenuity, and problem-solving that distinguishes the American character should never been given short shrift.
History. For the truth is that America has been down and out before. Many times in our history things have looked ominous, bleak and forbidding:
at Valley Forge during the War of Independence, throughout the Civil War, the 1918 Pandemic, the Great Depression, World War II and the darkest days of the Cold War, during the riots and assassinations of the late 1960’s, and during the decade-long decline and stagflation of the 1970’s.
But despite these earth-shattering historical events—or perhaps because of them—America has always picked itself up, fought back, triumphed, and emerged all the stronger. Of course, this is no guarantee of future success, but it is a compelling reason not to count America out.
Triumph. I say all this because, according to Dr. Marty Makary, a professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, our long national nightmare—COVID and the consequent closure of the schools and economic lockdowns—will soon be a thing of the past: yet another chapter in our nation’s history where the spirt of America endured, triumphed, and prevailed.
How is this possible? Well, as as Dr. Makary explains:
Amid the dire Covid warnings, one crucial fact has been largely ignored: Cases are down 77% over the past six weeks. If a medication slashed cases by 77%, we’d call it a miracle pill. Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted?
In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing.
Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.
Now add people getting vaccinated. As of this week, 15% of Americans have received the vaccine, and the figure is rising fast. Former Food and Drug Commissioner Scott Gottlieb estimates 250 million doses will have been delivered to some 150 million people by the end of March.
There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection. As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected.
At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life [emphasis added].
Economic Boom. Moreover, as the New York Times’ Ben Casselman reports, once COVID is vanquished, or at least rendered no worse than the seasonal flu, America is poised for a “supercharged [economic] rebound that brings down unemployment, drive up wages, and may foster years of stronger growth.”
“There are hints, he writes,
that the economy has turned a corner: Retail sales jumped last month as the latest round of government aid began showing up in consumers’ bank accounts.
New unemployment claims have declined from early January, though they remain high. Measures of business investment have picked up, a sign of confidence from corporate leaders.
Economists surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia this month predicted that U.S. output will increase 4.5 percent this year, which would make it the best year since 1999.
Some expect an even stronger bounce: Economists at Goldman Sachs forecast that the economy will grow 6.8 percent this year and that the unemployment rate will drop to 4.1 percent by December, a level that took eight years to achieve after the last recession.
“We’re extremely likely to get a very high growth rate,” said Jan Hatzius, Goldman’s chief economist. “Whether it’s a boom or not, I do think it’s a V-shaped recovery,” he added, referring to a steep drop followed by a sharp rebound.
Credit the scientists and researchers who developed a COVID vaccine in record time. Credit American entrepreneurs and businessmen who created new and novel ways to supply goods and services amid the pandemic.
Credit President Trump and members of Congress, both Democrats and Republicans, for acting quickly and decisively to sustain and support American families and American consumers.
And credit the Federal Reserve and Department of the Treasury for taking extraordinary and effective measures that keep the economy afloat in treacherous and turbulent waters.
But most of all credit the American people who, once again, demonstrated their resilience and resolve at a time when a nasty pandemic unexpectedly struck and threatened to destroy all that we hold dear.
We never submitted; we never surrendered; and, God willing, we never will.
Feature photo credit: Dr. Marty Makary, Professor of Medicine at Johns Hopkins and author of The Price We Pay: What Broke American Healthcare—and How to Fix It, courtesy of the Washington Speakers Bureau.